How Hunter Dobbins' injury affects the Cardinals' rotation moving forward

Starting pitcher injuries have been anything but a commodity for the St. Louis Cardinals. Unfortunately, a few arms have hit the shelf down the stretch, and Hunter Dobbins just got the worst kind of news. 

According to Derrick Goold, Dobbins underwent reconstructive elbow surgery. The timetable for return is set around 12 months. 

Dobbins, 27, was acquired this past offseason from the Boston Red Sox in the Willson Contreras deal. 

In his first taste of Cardinal baseball, Dobbins got the bid at bulk relief innings–and he showed out. His first memorable outing came against the Cubs in a mop-up role that would save the game for the Redbirds. 

Later, Dobbins earned more opportunities in the starting rotation. He finished 2026 with a 3.67 ERA in 54 innings–paired with a 1.35 WHIP and 52 Ks. 

At times, Dobbins’ youth was apparent, as he’d get in trouble when the zone eluded him. Walks, self-inflicted damage, and poor command strained his percentages. 

Interestingly enough, this could be a blessing in disguise for the Cardinals. Dobbins, who most certainly has arm talent, regressed in multiple analytical categories since crossing over from Beantown. Was he pitching hurt? Only time will tell, but it’s safe to say that even if he wasn’t, he needs to adjust. 

Fans and the front office will most certainly be wishing Dobbins a speedy recovery, as he embarks on the long, strenuous road back from a major arm injury. 

So, who’s the next man up in 2027? 

Who will replace Hunter Dobbins in the 2027 Cardinals’ starting rotation? 

Ahead of Dobbins’ season-ending injury, the rotation seemed to be lining up as follows: Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante, Dobbins, Quinn Mathews, Michael McGreevy. 

St. Louis has plenty of arm talent to supplement for injuries. The question isn’t where the innings will come from, but who will supply them. 

If you look at MLB Pipeline’s top-30, about 12 names have an ETA of 2027 or sooner. That won’t happen, but a few of those hurlers stand out–for one reason or another. 

Cooper Hjerpe (25) and Tekoah Roby (24) are the oldest prospects in the Cardinals’ top-30. The former has soared in the second half of 2026, while the latter has been plagued by injury. 

Hjerpe seems like the most likely candidate for MLB impact in 2027–either as a reliever or a starter. With the arm talent the Cardinals have, you could see a bullpen game-esque approach, with multiple future starters functioning in limited roles, “piggyback” style. 

The one option that fits instant-starter status is switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje. 

Cijntje has had his ups and downs since his acquisition. More recently, the ups have trumped the downs. 

When Cijntje is at his best, he’s in the zone, at different arm slots, and isn’t so easily batted around. The Cardinals have normalized low-ceiling stuff as a way to escape injuries and manic play. Unfortunately, this strategy also sacrifices ace upside. 

Cijntje has just that. He’s got “stopper” written all over both of his arms. St. Louis may be well served in giving its excess innings to the dual-armed starter. 

If not an internal option, the Cardinals could pursue another “Dustin May” deal–a one-year prove-it deal for a high-upside arm. 

Potential fits in this upcoming free agent class include former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, All-Star Shota Imanaga, or former All-Star Tony Gonsolin. 

All three have had legitimate injury concerns in the past, but could fit the Cardinals’ timeline as a stopgap option until the fleet of young arms arrives in full. 

Dobbins’ unfortunate injury should leave Cardinals fans grimacing–not just for their favorite team, but for the poor kid who worked so hard to put himself in a position to succeed. 

However, it has opened up some possibilities for 2027, and it’ll be fun to see which route POBO Chaim Bloom ventures on. Pick your adventure. 

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