Here is when the Cardinals expect to see movement in Nolan Arenado's trade market

While fans are itching to know what the fate of St. Louis Cardinals' third baseman Nolan Arenado will be this offseason, one Cardinals' insider gave some helpful direction into when we could see his market heat up this offseason.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (subscription required) was asked in a chat on Monday about when we could expect to see a Nolan Arenado trade this offseason (if it does happen), and he provided some helpful context as to when that market may move.

"At last check, the Cardinals expect the pace of the market to pick up at the winter meetings -- or going into the winter meetings," Goold wrote, "That is, of course, echoed by the reporters about the Soto courtship. Given that Bregman is available to teams interested in adding a 3B, and given that a few of the teams with an eye on Bregman first have to figure out where Soto signs ... you can see how all of these conversations are linked and where the Cardinals may have to wait for movement elsewhere to get the best offer they can take to Arenado."

To be clear, Goold is not reporting that this is when an Arenado trade will happen, but he is providing, based on the intel he has gathered in his own reporting and things we are hearing around the league, that the winter meetings are the likely time for Arenado's market to pick up.

This is due to, as Goold noted, the markets surrounding both Alex Bregman and Juan Soto. Bregman is the top third baseman available in free agency this offseason, and if the Cardinals want the best possible return for Arenado this offseason, waiting to see where Bregman lands to see if suitors turn their attention to Arenado makes a lot of sense.

While Soto's market doesn't directly impact Arenado's in terms of a team's need at third base, a team like the Boston Red Sox, who is reportedly all-in on Juan Soto but also has an active interest in Arenado, may pivot to the Cardinals' third baseman if they miss out on Soto.

Going back to Bregman, we did hear from The Athletic's Jim Bowden recently that he believed teams that missed out on Bregman could pivot to Arenado as a consolation prize, so Goold's thoughts here seem to line up with what the industry is hearing as well.

I do think fans need to remember that the Cardinals do not see a potential Arenado trade as a salary dump move. Arenado has not requested a trade from St. Louis at this point, and the club does not want to move him unless they are getting real value in return. No, they are not naive enough to think they'll get some blockbuster return, but they are not interested in giving him away just to get the money off the books.

In some ways, that makes a potential Arenado trade more complicated, and in other ways, it may help facilitate a potential deal. This likely means the Cardinals are open to paying down a chunk of Arenado's contract to better the return they'd receive, but it also means they will be picky with the offers they get.

The GM Meetings that happened recently tend to start a lot of these conversations, while the Winter Meetings tend to accelerate those potential moves. Once we see Bregman, Soto, Willy Adames, and other available position players taken off the market, Arenado's name will become a hotter topic of conversation.

In the meantime, remain patient Cardinals fans. Arenado may or may not be with the club next season, but there's still some time before we will see a resolution to this.