ESPN floats out a pipe dream by linking Tarik Skubal to the Cardinals

The MLB offseason is a great time for fans and writers to engage in wild speculation about where free agents will wind up, and ESPN.com cooked up a doozy when it called free agent starting pitcher Tarik Skubal a fit for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Skubal's résumé speaks for itself. The left-hander has a career 3.02 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout rate. He's won two Cy Young Awards and a Triple Crown, and he's led the league in ERA twice. Every team would love to own one of the top pitchers in the game, but only a few have the clout to acquire one like Skubal off of the free agent market.

The Cardinals weren't ESPN's top choice; that "prize" goes to the rival Chicago Cubs, which may lead Cardinals fans to upchuck in their mouths a bit. The Cubs, a contending squad with a questionable rotation, are a team "in desperate need of an ace," according to the article, so Skubal does make sense if the Cubs owners want to swing for the fences for their first championship since 2016.

But this isn't a Cubs blog. When naming the Cardinals as "another possible fit" for Skubal, the article mentioned how St. Louis' estimated payroll in 2027 is just $66 million, according to Cot's Contracts, and with JJ Wetherholt's contract being the only long-term deal that the Cardinals have on the books, the team can afford to take on a giant contract like the one Skubal is expected to receive.

However, just because they can afford Skubal doesn't mean the Cardinals will pursue him.

Tarik Skubal and the Cardinals don't match up

Skubal, who is fresh off of a one-year, $32 million contract, is likely to command a historic level of money for a pitcher in free agency, and as the ESPN article mentioned, the Cardinals rarely wade into those waters, with the re-signing of Matt Holliday for seven years and $120 million as their most pricey free agent contract in history. According to a poll of 27 baseball insiders, the average projection of Skubal's contract is eight years and $355 million. Former president of baseball operations John Mozeliak would never have touched such a number, and if history is any indication, Chaim Bloom won't either.

Bloom's largest free agent contract was one that he handed to Trevor Story in 2022 while with the Boston Red Sox, which amounted to six years and $140 million. Bloom was known more for subtracting from his rosters rather than adding to them, as Mookie Betts was dealt under his watch when Boston tightened its purse strings.

Although there's no saying what could happen when Bloom is allowed to splash the substantial cash that the Cardinals have lying around, the Cardinals have no reason to sign Skubal in their current state. Bloom has made no secret of the team's intentions: St. Louis is embarking on a methodical rebuild, and as he likes to say, baseball doesn't like when teams attempt to stray from their plans.

For that reason, a one-year deal wouldn't make sense for Skubal, and he would be unlikely to accept a one-year contract from a team that doesn't expect to compete in 2027 anyway. A multiyear deal for Skubal would be slightly more feasible, as he could theoretically lead the wellspring of pitching talent that is rising through the Cardinals farm system.

The Cardinals will hopefully be able to unearth an ace from that bunch and have a surplus of young arms ready to contribute at the major league level by the time they're ready to compete again. But would Skubal, who will be 30 for all of the 2027 season, be amenable to waiting two or more years for all of those prospects to reach Busch Stadium? Would he want to do it in St. Louis after experiencing the luxury of Los Angeles? Above all, would Bloom be willing to travel so far out of his comfort zone to provide a megadeal unlike anything he has ever done in his career?

In addition to those disincentives, pitchers are notoriously fragile, and Skubal has already undergone three elbow surgeries in his career, so it's highly unlikely that Bloom and the Cardinals would deem Skubal worth the level of risk needed to commit to him long-term.

Theories are about to run rampant over where the big names will sign, and while the Cardinals shouldn't be absent from the free agent market, signing Skubal would defy all logic. It's a nice scenario to imagine on a rainy Saturday morning, but that's about it.

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