Dustin May is a project, but Cardinals can help him rediscover top prospect form

Chaim Bloom is doing what most thought he would by bringing in former Boston Red Sox pitchers this offseason, though, peculiarly, none are players that were drafted or developed while he was still running the operation.

Brandon Clarke (2024 draft pick) and Richard Fitts (2023 Winter Meetings trade) were both acquired by the Red Sox once Craig Breslow had taken over. Likewise, the St. Louis Cardinals' first free-agent acquisition of the offseason, starting pitcher Dustin May, was only in Boston after Bloom had left the scene.

The 28-year-old is joining St. Louis on a one-year deal, so it's possible that the team is acquiring him with the intention of flipping him at the trade deadline for prospects. If so, they'll need him to turn in a stronger season than he did in 2025.

So, how can the Cardinals return May to his previous top prospect form?

Dustin May's best stuff may require a new look with Cardinals.

May appears to be a lock for the Cardinals rotation after signing, which checks out after he handled a career-high 132 1/3 innings last season.

That relatively modest workload is part of the concern with May; he is an injury-prone pitcher who, prior to 2025, had thrown less than 200 major-league innings between his MLB debut in 2019 and 2024.

The Red Sox's trade for him was always a questionable one, seeing as he's clearly not the same pitcher he once was. Prior to the trade, with the Dodgers, the right-hander recorded a 4.85 ERA and 4.74 FIP in 104 innings; in Boston, May logged a 5.40 ERA and 5.39 FIP before a forearm injury prematurely ended his season.

Assuming the Cardinals can keep him healthy (which is far from a guarantee), there are some clear changes they can implement to help his production.

For one, May's fastball velocity was far from its peak in 2025, which makes sense after so many injuries have taken their toll on his arm. Therefore, his sinker was hammered by opposing hitters to the tune of a .567 slugging percentage and a .405 wOBA (and the expected stats were worse). Meanwhile, his four-seamer, which generates far more rise and comes in about one mile per hour hotter, was nearly dominant, yielding a .165 batting average against and .284 wOBA.

It's not quite as simple as just ditching the sinker — pitch sequencing and varied movement profiles are necessary for getting big-league hitters out nowadays — but de-emphasizing the pitch (-7 run value) could allow May to feature his four-seamer (-1 run value) and sweeper (+3 run value) more often. He runs some bullpen risk if he's limited to just two offerings, but if his velocity ticks back up, May can get a lot of good hitters out with just his best stuff.

There's other changes that can be made (changing his arm angle, adding or reshaping a pitch, etc.) that could revert May back to the pitcher who once universally featured on Top 100 prospect lists.

That may be wishful thinking, but the Cardinals' new pitching development team will have a fun initial project to work with. If they succeed, the results could be huge.