Cardinals' projected 2026 rotation after Dustin May signing

The St. Louis Cardinals finally made a pitching move that seems to be universally applauded. After signing righty Dustin May, social media was congratulating the Cardinals on a low-risk, one-year deal for the injury-troubled starter, but the move does bring some questions around the rotation as we head into the new year.

What does Dustin May's signing mean for the Cardinals rotation?

Add me to the list of people who subscribe to the saying "There's no such thing as a bad one-year deal," and that remains true with the Dustin May contract. Personally, I wish there were a club option or buyout rather than a mutual option since May is only 28 years old and coming off his highest workload season, so I believe the 2026 campaign could be a great year for him to show his value if he can stay healthy. My thought there is that the Cardinals' rotation is full of question marks, and even in a rebuild, stable pitching is important to build around, and the former top prospect still has the potential to be that stabilizing arm.

Last season was May's first going over 100 innings since 2019, and even though it was a 0.8 fWAR performance, he still slots in among the top of the Cardinals' starting five pitchers. As things stand, the Cardinals have six big league starters who were all expected to compete for available innings next season. Until the May deal becomes official with a 40-man roster move, there will not be any rotation clarity, and even then, we will probably have to wait until further in the offseason as the Cardinals potentially become more active on the trade market.

Chaim Bloom and the organization have not spoken much to the expected pitching staff at this point, and it is a little early to start playing the speculation game when we are still two months away from Spring Training. The most information we have so far is that Kyle Leahy is firmly in the running and a potential favorite for a rotation spot, and we have to expect May, Matthew Liberatore, and Michael McGreevy to be near locks at a job. Of the current options, that leaves Andre Pallante and Richard Fitts to compete for the final spot. That setup is my best guess for what Oli Marmol and his staff will be choosing from, but it is very possible that the team liked what they saw in the durability from Pallante, and he is safer than I expected.

Fitts has only pitched 65.2 major-league innings as a soon-to-be 26-year-old, but he has worked almost exclusively as a starter in his professional career. I only put the edge towards Fitts for the fifth spot in the rotation because I feel that he was a specific target of Bloom in the trade and Pallante has shown the ability to also pitch out of the bullpen. I have also discussed the possibility of a six-man rotation, something the organization attempted to do last season before they were hit with extreme injury luck. Signing May still leaves that question on the table, but again, we have not heard anything clear from the people in charge about rotation expectations.