Dustin May gem makes Cardinals trade deadline approach a bit more complicated

Both Dustin May and the St. Louis Cardinals have achieved levels of success that weren't expected. For the Cardinals, a 39-31 record halfway through the month of June and sole possession of the top National League Wild Card spot is surprising. For May, a 3.75 ERA across 14 starts with a clean bill of health has been a pleasant surprise. Both the club's and the starter's success has made Chaim Bloom's decision at the trade deadline very difficult.

After a rough first two outings of the year, May has posted a 2.54 ERA (8th in the National League), 2.68 FIP (5th in the NL), 0.98 WHIP (5th in the NL), and a 63 ERA- (9th in the NL). He's been a top-tier starter in the National League over the last 12 starts, and this has increased both his value on the trade market and his value for the rebuilding Cardinals. His nine-strikeout complete game shutout Monday night was the pinnacle of his season thus far.

When the Cardinals initially signed May, they were hoping he would find stability and success after an injury-ridden career. The six-foot-six righty had only thrown more than 56 innings in his career once, and his ERA that year was 4.96. A combination of health and success would make May an intriguing trade deadline candidate for the rebuilding Cardinals, especially considering his one-year deal.

However, May has been a stabilizing force for an otherwise inexperienced and wary rotation. That has been good for the Cardinals, but it's complicated Chaim Bloom's plans for the deadline.

Chaim Bloom has four choices when it comes to St. Louis Cardinals starter Dustin May at the trade deadline.

Option 1: Hold on to Dustin May and let him walk in the offseason.

This is by far the worst option. Not only do the Cardinals miss out on capitalizing on his trade value at the deadline, but they get nothing in return for him. He has a mutual option for 2027 worth $20 million, but he'll assuredly opt out of that deal to get more on the open market.

I wouldn't recommend Chaim Bloom do this.

Option 2: Don't trade Dustin May and then offer him a qualifying offer after the season

Now we're starting to get into some calculus.

Dustin May has never received a qualifying offer in his career. Therefore, he's eligible for one. This year's QO for players was valued at $22.025 million. It's expected to surpass $23 million next year, assuming the new CBA includes qualifying offers still.

As with his mutual option, May will decline the offer, and the Cardinals will get a draft pick for the 2027 season. They already have six selections in the first 86 picks this year, so another draftee will be welcomed by a front office looking to bulk up the farm system.

This isn't the ideal route with Dustin May this year, but a compensation pick for May declining a qualifying offer is a fine consolation prize.

Option 3: Trade Dustin May at the trade deadline

Here's Chaim Bloom's biggest inflection point. If the Cardinals are in the playoffs and Dustin May maintains this level of success by the time the trade deadline rolls around, how would Bloom justify trading the guy who is one of the main reasons for the team's success? If Bloom holds on to May and the Cardinals start to lose or May begins to falter, fans will complain that Bloom didn't sell when May's value was at its highest.

Trading Dustin May at the deadline will likely net a bigger package of prospects than a compensation pick if the second route discussed were chosen.

For a team in a rebuild, assuming Chaim Bloom sticks with his plan, this is the best option.

Option 4: Extend Dustin May

With the success of JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, and Jordan Walker at the plate, the position player side of the rebuild appears to have a solid foundation. The pitching, however, lags behind. Michael McGreevy has been solid in his starts, but he doesn't boast the overpowering stuff that an ace often has. Kyle Leahy and Matthew Liberatore have struggled to pitch past the fifth inning. Andre Pallante has had a resurgence this year, but again, he's more of a #4 in a playoff rotation.

Extending Dustin May to be a bridge for higher ceiling starters like Liam Doyle, Quinn Mathews, Tanner Franklin and others may be a good idea. May is the best starter on the staff, and he has excellent fastball velocity, often a defining trait for an ace. His success this year has only added to that allure.

The risk in extended Dustin May is that he experiences injuries, a staple for the first six years of his career. However, the Cardinals have been excellent at managing pitcher health these last three years. Perhaps they found the secret to keeping Dustin May on the mound. For what it's worth, this extension could happen at any point between now and the offseason, assuming we have one still.

A four-year extension worth around $100-125 million would keep Dustin May in St. Louis through his age-32 season. This would benefit both May and the Cardinals as they look to navigate this rebuild on the pitching side of things.

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