After win against the Mets, the Cardinals' Dustin May deadline conundrum continues

Back in spring training, the plan seemed so clear. When Dustin May signed his one-year deal with the Cardinals back in December, the benefit to both parties was evident.  For May, St. Louis offered a low-pressure environment to build back his career.  For the Cardinals, May offered an affordable option to log innings, and, if he performed well, an opportunity to continue collecting assets with a near-certain trade deadline flip.

Has the Cardinals’ unexpected success this season thrown a wrench in that plan?

May has kept up his end of the bargain.  Since his disastrous start, where the big right-hander gave up 13 runs and 17 hits over two games, he has continued to shine, and that comeback continued Tuesday night against the Mets.  May threw six scoreless innings, striking out six and walking only one.  It was the tenth time in his last eleven starts that he’s given up three earned runs or fewer.  That streak, of course, includes the near no-hitter he threw against the Brewers last month.

May’s trade value has undoubtedly rebounded from the start of the season, and the Cardinals should be able to deal him for potentially impact prospects at the trade deadline. But will they?

The Cardinals have a tough decision to make at the trade deadline when it comes to Dustin May

After Tuesday’s series-opening win against the Mets, the Cardinals sit at 36-28, four-and-a-half games behind the Brewers in the division, but holding on to the top wild card slot.  This unexpected – and genuinely fun – start has led to some interesting thought exercises as to how the team will handle the trade deadline.

Here, of course, is where we need to point out it’s still early in the season. The Cardinals were in a similar spot last year before fading fast in July, and these questions could become moot by the time the deadline rolls around. But if the team is still playing for the playoffs, or even competing for the division, will they really try and offload May?

While Chaim Bloom has indicated that this season is still about talent accumulation for the future (and some national pundits believe a trade is still likely a done deal), that’s easier to say in June. Will that still be the case if the Cardinals are in serious playoff contention in a month? Even if Bloom remains laser-focused on sustained contention in the future, will ownership sign off on a trade that many might see as waving the white flag for this year?

And how will the fans react? Cardinals Nation seems to largely appreciate Bloom’s team-building plan and candor about the direction of this season, but rational thought tends to go out the window when the playoffs are in sight.

The team could, of course, try to walk the tightrope of trading May and staying in contention.  It would be a dream scenario, allowing for talent acquisition for the future while keeping an eye on this season. If Hunter Dobbins impresses during his stint as the sixth starter, he could easily slide into May’s role in the rotation, potentially offering a seamless transition for the rest of the year.

And one need not look far to find a compelling example of a team selling assets and still succeeding. Only two years ago, the Detroit Tigers traded four players at the deadline (including former Cardinal Jack Flaherty), before surging in August, making the playoffs, and sweeping the Houston Astros in the Wild Card round.

The Tigers, though, are not the Cardinals. The Cardinals are steeped in history and success, and, for better or worse, fans may not accept punting on this season if the team continues to succeed, no matter what might be said now.  And even if Dobbins is able to take May’s place, the team will be exceedingly thin on pitching depth in case of an injury or poor performance.

This is all a good problem for Bloom to have, and these are the types of roster headaches he would welcome. But as this unexpected season rolls on, and as May continues to post quality starts, the direction the club takes at the deadline will be fascinating to watch.

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