Direction of Cardinals season will be determined by first meeting with Cubs this week

The long-awaited first matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs is finally upon us, and it couldn't have come at a more critical point in the Cardinals' season.

After losing seven of eight games heading into last week, the Cardinals have rebuilt momentum in their last two series, sweeping the Chicago White Sox and taking two of three from the Cincinnati Reds, leading up to Monday's matchup with the Cubs.

The Cubs (46-31) hold a 6.5-game lead over the Cardinals (42-36) in the National League Central thanks to a breakout MVP campaign from center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and big offseason trade acquisition Kyle Tucker. The Cubs have maintained strong momentum all season long despite major injuries to their pitching staff, losing ace Justin Steele for the year, and are finally set to get back lefty Shota Imanaga during this series after he missed significant time as well.

The Cubs look like one of the most complete teams in baseball, as they pair their high-powered offense with strong defensive play, a much-improved bullpen from their rocky start to the year, and good baserunning, and they are sure to add more arms to their rotation come July.

That presents a tough task for the Cardinals over these next four games at Busch Stadium, and depending on how things go, that could propel them to a special summer run or accelerate their potential destiny as a seller at the trade deadline.

The Cardinals first matchup with the Cubs may determine how the rest of their season goes.

The Cardinals have a chance to cut the Cubs' lead over them in the NL Central to just half a game with a four-game sweep of their rivals, but they could also fall back to 8.5 games behind Chicago if things implode for them.

Those two extremes would obviously lead to very different outcomes. If the Cardinals are just a half game back of the NL Central lead and sweep one of the strongest teams in baseball, it will be hard to imagine how they end up becoming sellers by the deadline. But if the opposite is true and they are that far back in the race, not only will vibes be at an all-time low because of a Cubs sweep, but the standings will surely dictate pulling the plug on the hope they had earlier this season.

Losing Ivan Herrera this past week to another injury does not help with this. Even outside of the division race, the Cardinals are currently battling things out with six other teams in the National League race for three Wild Card spots, and while they are just one game back as of today, it gets a lot harder to project a playoff spot for the Cardinals if they take a step back this week and have to overtake four to six other quality teams the rest of the way.

Needless to say, this is a huge series for the Cardinals. Not just because they are playing their arch-rival, but because the results of this series could truly dictate how the last few months of their 2025 season, and the John Mozeliak regime, come to an end.