The St. Louis Cardinals' next home stand looms large

It’s always cliched – and a little crazy – to describe any stretch of games in June as “must win”. But this next Cardinals homestand sure seems like it’s going to be an inflection point for the team.

Three against the Reds. Four against the Cubs. And with the trade deadline creeping closer, this seven-game set may determine the direction of this 2025 “runway” team.

The Cardinals must, of course, first take care of business against the White Sox. They did just that with a 12-2 blowout win in their first game in the Windy City, but a series win is imperative. A sweep would be great, but taking the series against the White Sox is an absolute must.

Then the critical intra-division homestand. It should go without saying that the Cardinals could go 0-7 at home and then reel off a dominant stretch. (And with the way this rollercoaster season has gone, that option is certainly a possibility.)  But it sure seems like a successful stretch during the upcoming games at Busch is a must if this team wants to seriously try to contend in 2025.

To start, it’s seven straight games against division opponents. As of this writing, the Reds and Cardinals sport identical records at 38-35. But they’re teams on opposite trajectories, with the Reds having gone 8-2 in the last ten, with the Cards, as we know, staggering to a 3-7 record.

And then after the Reds? The (tied for) National League-leading Cubs, who are finally playing like a team befitting their market. Improbably, this is the first time the Cubs and Cardinals are meeting this year, and a series win would be huge, especially in the friendly confines of Busch.

Despite their June swoon, the Cardinals still sport series wins against the Phillies, Dodgers, and Mets. Notching a series win against the Cubs would not only help with the standings, but it would help to start clarifying what the front office wants to do ahead of the trade deadline.

Maybe winning the division is a pipe dream. The Cubs are already 6.5 games up on the Brewers, seven up on the Cards and Reds. And of any team in the division, the Small Bears are likeliest to reinforce at the deadline.

But even if the division is out of reach, the bunch-up around the three available Wild Card spots is still full of NL Central rivals. The Phillies, Giants, and Padres currently occupy wild card slots, but the first three teams currently out? The Brewers, Reds, and Cards, each a game or 1.5 games back of that final wild card spot. Winning a series against the Reds is important generally, but it also seems almost necessary if the team wants to think about the playoffs.

Again, it’s early. A season is never made in June. But for this team, under these circumstances, this home stand could determine how the rest of the summer plays out. This was, of course, supposed to be a reset year, a chance to give runway to some of the younger players.  The team has instead overachieved, potentially changing the calculus of what happens by the end of July.

Now, maybe it doesn’t matter. Maybe the Cardinals are planning to stand pat or even sell no matter what happens the rest of the way. That might even be the prudent decision.

But perhaps the players will have a say in that decision. And if so, what happens starting Friday in St. Louis could loom large.