Comparing the Cardinals' current roster to their division foes

While the St. Louis Cardinals are expecting the 2025 roster to shift more towards the youth side than in years past, their young talent should provide some excitement for the front office and fans. The National League Central has continuously been seen as one of the weaker divisions in baseball, which could bring the Cardinals closer to the upper tier of the division than expected.

With Winter Meetings wrapping up, there was not much action going around the division. The Reds made a trade sending Cardinal-killer Jonathan India to Kansas City and the Pirates got rid of offensive pieces like Bryan de la Cruz and Connor Joe. The Cubs look to take advantage of a mediocre division as evidenced by their recent deal to trade for Kyle Tucker, but still have some remaining holes in their infield. The back-to-back NL Central champion Brewers overachieved mightily last year and recently lost Willy Adames to the Giants and traded lockdown closer Devin Williams to the Yankees. So while there are definitely more moves to be made over the next few months, let's see where things currently stand around the division.

What will the 2025 Cardinals roster look like?

To compare the team to the rest of the division, let's first look at what the Cardinals roster is as of today, but also include added expectations of moves rumored from the front office and around the league. The comparison will be between position groups, rather than individuals, although there will be some necessary references to certain players who could be difference-makers for their teams.

Starting Rotation

As far as position groups go, this is one that has many questions that may go unanswered into the new year depending on what the team's plans may be. As things stand today, the current rotation appears to be some grouping of number one starter Sonny Gray, extension-candidate Andre Pallante, trade-chip Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas and his albatross contract, and a battle for the fifth spot.

Gray has already stated his intent to stay with the club after a solid first year in St. Louis. He prefers to not waive his trade clause as a big part of his signing was his proximity to home. Pallante had a great year in the rotation last season and can hopefully fine-tune his skills and become a long-term piece. Fedde was underwhelming based on stats after his deadline arrival, but his $7.5 million contract is attractive to both the Cardinals and teams around the league looking for a rotation upgrade during a time of rising pitcher cost. Mikolas has had an overall successful career in St. Louis after returning from Japan, but his past two seasons have shown concerning results and leaving the team in an awkward position after a pricey extension that signed him through this season.

The fifth spot is an interesting one that could either have the Cardinals striking cheap gold or be a thorn in the side of an already thin rotation. The current thought is to give young arms like Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy a shot to compete for the spot along with veterans Steven Matz and Zack Thompson getting another go at it. As usually happens with starting rotations, a spring training competition will bring some new, exciting names who open some eyes during the exhibition season.

Overall, the rotation group is a concern but could also boast potential depending on the decisions that are made with Fedde, Mikolas, and the fifth spot.

Bullpen

Personally, I do not like to put too much stock into bullpens, especially in mid-December. Of course, when there is a dominant closer like Ryan Helsley aboard, that screams of relief corps strength. However, the thought going into the offseason was the ship Helsley as his award-winning 2024 campaign should be used to get the maximum amount back for him on the trade market. Through this point, though, the team's top brass appears undecided if Helsley will be traded.

With the bullpen always being a volatile group that can be filled with veterans, failed starters, Rule 5 picks, and no-name minor leaguers, it is tough to anticipate what type of success this group could have. JoJo Romero and success story Ryan Fernandez look to build off of quality seasons while being surrounded by names like Matthew Liberatore, John King, Kyle Leahy, and whoever does not come out of spring training as a starter.

The bullpen is always something that will go through dominant and down stretches during the season and, at worst, can be viewed as league average with potential.

Infield

The infield is where things get interesting. As we stand in mid-December, Nolan Arenado is still a Cardinal. John Mozeliak recently said that the intention is still to trade Arenado, but may take a little bit more time as the third base market is still in flux. If the team were to keep Arenado, there could be worse things for a roster than having a future Hall of Fame, Gold Glove-winning player in the lineup. While his offense has been on the downturn, even his down seasons provided at least league-minimum production and 2.5 WAR.

Assuming an Arenado trade comes to light, the Cardinals will have a massive hole at the hot corner to go along with a vacancy at first base after allowing Paul Goldschmidt to test the open market. To address these concerns, the team announced that catcher Willson Contreras will become the full-time first baseman with occasional DH opportunities. This moves Iván Herrera to more of a starter's role at catcher with Pedro Pagés mixing in. The likely patch to the third base hole comes from Brendan Donovan, assuming an MLB-ready third baseman does not come back to the Cardinals in the trade. While solid, Donovan's bat and glove are a downgrade from Arenado's, as Donovan's patient approach at the plate fits better at the top or bottom of the lineup rather than Arenado's typical middle spot.

The middle infield is much more certain with a superstar in the making Masyn Winn looking to build off a special year in 2024 that would have seen him compete in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in most any other year. Winn will be paired initially with Nolan Gorman, who Mo already said is a player they expect to get 600 plate appearances this year. Gorman has shown fine defense at second while providing extreme power, popping 60 homers over his first 315 games, good for an above-average 5.1% home run rate. Of course, the question with Gorman comes with his ability to actually make contact. After a 2023 season that saw a tough to stomach 32% K-rate matched with an acceptable 11% BB-rate, each of those numbers went in the wrong direction in 2024, leading to Gorman's demotion to Memphis for the majority of the second half.

The infield group could be rounded out with Thomas Saggese filling a utility role and lefty Alec Burleson finding some starts at first base to get Contreras off of his feet. The infield will look to provide quality defense without two literal cornerstones of the group and hopefully see an uptick in production across the board.

Outfield

The Cardinals' outfield is the area that seems easiest to predict. While the alignment may differ with Lars Nootbaar showing a willingness to play center fielder, the outfield looks to be Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, and Victor Scott II. Michael Siani provided outstanding defense last year, but his offensive production was so below average that the team should opt to see if Scott II can show growth after a 2024 season that saw him struggle to adjust to major league arms. Donovan and Burleson look to fill in as needed but the lefty-heavy outfield may need to find a right-handed bat in the minors or free agency to provide bench depth or an alternative for platoon splits.

Manager

Overall, Oli Marmol has had a successful tenure with the Cardinals despite the lack of playoff results. Marmol showed in-game managerial skills and the ability to work a bullpen as seen with the success of Helsley, Romero, and Andrew Kittredge. The arguments against Marmol's success have to be met with a grain of salt as much of the complaints come from a lack of performing players. At some point, that blame can be passed on to the front office and their inability to find players to put the team over the edge.

As things stand, the team actually looks similar to last year minus Goldschmidt and the impending Arenado trade. While those do create holes in the lineup, those two's offensive output left much to be desired that the club can look to fill internally or the free agent or trade market.