2 arbitration eligible players the Cardinals should extend, 1 they should not

A growing trend around the MLB has been players receiving extensions shortly after making their debut, or in some cases before they even play a single game at the big league level. The idea behind this is to pay higher value upfront in the hopes of securing a franchise cornerstone prior to a player putting together a track record that could result in a large payday.

If this strategy works, it is typically considered a win for the organization as they now have a potential superstar player at well below what they would receive in free agency. Recent examples of success are the Braves extension of Spencer Strider (6 years / $75 million) and the Reds with Hunter Green (6/$53mil).

However, there are plenty of instances where such a move can backfire on the organization, hamstringing management to either eat big salaries via DFA's and trades or to continue trotting out an underachieving player due to their high payroll.

In February, Thomas Gauvain wrote a great piece surrounding the Cardinals' successes and failures with pre-arbitration extensions. The good saw names like future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina (4/$15mil), salsa-era Matt Carpenter (6/$52mil), and all-time Cardinals great Adam Wainwright (4/$21mil). Some players that might make the Cardinals think twice on these early paydays were Allen Craig (5/$31mil) and Stephen Piscotty (6/$33.5mil), each of whom showed potential but provided little to no value after the early extensions.

So who on the current roster should be locked in before hitting the open market? Anyone the Cardinals should avoid to show their new approach to prospect development can be trusted? This list looks at older, extension-aged players, rather than younger, pre-arbitration players like Masyn Winn and Jordan Walker.

Sign: RHP Andre Pallante (26 years old, $1.8 million 2025 salary, arbitration eligible through 2028)

It is known by now how much of a welcomed and necessary addition Andre Pallante was to the Cardinals rotation last season. At the beginning of his professional career, Pallante worked almost exclusively as a starter after two outstanding seasons at UC-Irvine made him a fourth-round pick in 2019. He cracked the Cardinals roster out of spring training in 2022 despite no MLB innings yet on his record.

During the 2022 season, Pallante started the season as a low-leverage reliever and made 17 appearances during the first two months with promising results. Early season struggles by Matthew Liberatore and a back injury to Steven Matz put the Cardinals' rotation in an innings crunch they looked to fill by moving Pallante to the starting staff. His initial results were once again strong as he pitched to a 2.97 ERA in 5 starts. He did have some concerning peripherals, however, as he only struck out 15 hitters and walked 12 in his 30 innings. In the pre-pitch clock era of the MLB, his lack of command made innings drag along, but he kept the ball in the ballpark, got tons of ground balls that turned into double plays and did not give up many hits, leading to his 1.25 WHIP.

In July, though, the peripherals caught up to him as his ERA skyrocketed to a 5.47 for the month. Despite pitching fewer innings (26.1) than he did in June, Pallante's ball-in-play pitching style caused him to give up 37 hits. With the increased traffic, Pallante needed to make adjustments in his pitch mix and, in a positive trend, he did increase his strikeouts to 27 and dropped his walk total to a meager 5 over his five starts.

Pallante's starting gig would come to an end during the season's second half and the Cardinals' acquisitions of pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana as they prepared to make a run to the postseason. As was the start of his season, his first month back in the bullpen showed the Cardinals made the right move when Pallante made 7 appearances spanning 15 innings. His command concerns showed up again with 7 walks in those innings to go along with a decreasing strikeout rate. The remainder of the season created more cause for concern as his 12 innings saw his ERA again sore over 5.00 and his strikeouts all but disappeared, totaling 4 with 6 more walks.

Overall, Pallante's 2022 season was seen as a success where he showed durability and swingman capabilities, en route to a 6-5 record and 3.17 ERA, albeit with a 3.98 FIP. With rotation depth seemingly being a strength for the 2023 Cardinals, Pallante spent the entire season a trusted bullpen piece. He made 62 appearances, mostly in the middle innings of games, covering 68 innings. The Cardinals' lack of a postseason run allowed Pallante to stick with the big league team for the vast majority of the season. In another year, his 4.76 ERA, 14% strikeout rate, and 10% walk rate may have seen him spend more time down in Memphis working on his command of the zone.

2024 is the season that makes Pallante the top extension target on this list. The WBC Team Italy member once again started the season in the bullpen, but after 7 rough innings, he was optioned to Memphis where it was announced he would stretch out his appearances for an eventual transition to a starter. After 4 AAA starts, Pallante showed the same trends with a low ERA yet concerning walk and hit numbers. Another injury to Steven Matz in May opened up a potential long-term rotation spot and Pallante was recalled to fill the void.

The Cardinals' season hovered in an interesting spot, as the team remained in playoff contention after a post-Mother's Day surge. Pallante's second-half performance played a major role in allowing the Cardinals to stay within grasp of a division title. After he was recalled, Pallante stuck in the rotation for the remainder of the year and made 12 solid starts for a team that was often in need of a quality performance. In 70 innings post-All-Star break, he went 4-4 with a 3.47 ERA with improved command and strikeout numbers and a 1.24 WHIP. Overall, Pallante's 2024 numbers and durability sets him up to be locked into a rotation spot next season.

When looking at contract values, Baseball Reference's similarity scores through age-25 seasons ranked no other than Adam Wainwright as a match. Diving deeper into this comparison, it made sense as both players were primarily starters in their minor league careers, then receiving their first major league innings out of the bullpen, before fully transitioning into a starter role after reliever success. To get a glimpse into what Pallante could fetch on the open market, Spotrac's market value estimate put his value at $9.1 million, over four times his 2025 salary. With the recent increase in starting pitcher salaries, if he were to show continued success in the rotation, Pallante could pitch himself into contract values in the $15 million range through his final years of arbitration.

It could be beneficial to both parties as the Cardinals need stability in their rotation, and at 26 years old, Pallante could become an affordable veteran rotation piece a la Erick Fedde yet younger. For Pallante's camp, with problematic peripherals in regards to his command and strikeout ability. To his credit, he has given up less than 1.0 HR/9 throughout his career and last season's 0.6 rate would be top-5 in all of baseball if he qualified with enough innings pitched.