Cardinals spring training starts plan reinforces their greatest mistake of offseason

Look, I know getting the ball to start a spring training game isn't the same as making starts in the regular season, but the trend the St. Louis Cardinals confirmed already for their spring training games is why I've been harping on them all offseason regarding the state of their rotation.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported today that the manager Oliver Marmol has 10 pitchers picked out to start games this spring, and while the list is "fluid and might shift based on performance", it further shows why the Cardinals have far too many young arms ready for opportunities to hold onto some of the veterans they've clung to this offseason.

Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Steven Matz, and Michael McGreevy, the projected top-six starting options entering camp, will be 60% of that list, with top prospect Quinn Mathews being tabbed as the seventh man of that group. It's unclear who the other three names will be - but here's the problem, there are at least seven other names I believe should be starting in camp - so these numbers aren't adding up.

The Cardinals holding onto veteran arms this offseason is taking away opportunities from young arms

Outside of the seven the Cardinals have already determined, I can easily make a case that Tink Hence, Cooper Hjerpe, Tekoah Roby, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Sem Robberse, and Gordon Graceffo should make starts as well. I haven't even named other options like Drew Rom, Max Rajcic, Ian Bedell, Roddery Munoz, or Curtis Taylor. Sure, not all 12 guys need starts, and yes, innings in relief will give some insights as well, but do you see how crowded this potential mix is?

Right now, outside of that six-man group, it's pretty easy to say that Liberatore, Rom, and Thompson could make starts for you if you needed them to, and hey, maybe they show major strides this year in camp. I fully expect Mathews to be ready for major league starts as soon as Opening Day or within a month or two of the season starting. And then with guys like Robberse, Hence, Hjerpe, and Roby, all could be ready soon or at least at some point in 2025.

This is why myself and so many others have been clamoring for the Cardinals to move a veteran starter like Erick Fedde or Steven Matz in a trade this offseason. Clear. Room. For. Young. Starters.

This is not four or five years ago when the Cardinals were tapping the shoulder of a very unready arm like Johan Ovideo to make starts because they just had no bodies left. This is not the second half of 2023 where Wainwright, Rom, Hudson, Thompson, and Liberatore were getting rocked on the mound night in and night out. The Cardinals have depth here, and more importantly, they have depth that needs to prove what they are. Will all of these arms be able to rise to the task? No. But the point is, you need to know who can and who can't moving forward, and right now the Cardinals are doing a poor job of creating opportunity for those young arms.

The front office is right that injuries are inevitable and opportunities will arise. Sure, I'll give them that. But did they forget that last year, their projected Opening Day rotation was able to cover 74% of their starts last year? And if you include Pallante into that mix, that made up for 86% of their total starts? They did lose Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn this offseason, but now they hope to get a full season of Andre Pallante and Erick Fedde in their rotation. Yes, they got lucky with the injury bug in regard to their rotation last year, but I just don't see how they believe they've created enough opportunity here.

At this point, McGreevy should be set to own a rotation spot this year. I expect Mathews to be ready for 15-20 starts himself this year. And what about those other arms? Oh man, oh man.

Not only are the Cardinals missing out on opportunities for their young arms, but they are also missing out on a way to add talent to their farm system by shipping Fedde somewhere. And even if they are scared of putting too much pressure on their young arms, wouldn't the wise thing to do be to flip Fedde in a trade and bring back Gibson or Lynn for insurance? I know they want to surprise people this year, but their desire to surprise shouldn't trump their plan to revamp this organization.

Well, we'll see how this goes for them. But once again, I'm left with more questions than answers when it comes to the Cardinals' plan for their young, MLB-ready arms in 2025.