Cardinals should have a Rainiel Rodriguez extension on their radar after the lockout

When the current Major League CBA expires in December, we are set for a work stoppage that will likely change the landscape of the sport in major ways. Whenever that dispute is over, whether it's February or June, the St. Louis Cardinals and Rainiel Rodriguez should be at the negotiating table as soon as possible.

Multiple members of the Cardinals organization have told me he's the best hitting prospect they've ever seen, and when you pair that with the makeup Rodriguez has, it's a special prospect worth betting on. Cardinals farm director Larry Day came on the Dealin' the Cards podcast recently and compared Rodriguez's mixture of being the best player and hardest worker to future Hall of Famer José Ramírez, who Day spent significant time with during his time with the Cleveland Guardians.

You can listen to my full conversation with Day on YouTube or wherever you get your Cardinals podcasts. He, like anyone you talk to in the Cardinals organization, can't stop singing Rodriguez's praises, and it's worth getting further insight on the Cardinals top prospect.

Talking about extensions with any player is always a tricky conversation, even more so with a 20-year-old who has never even played in a Major League game. There's risk with any long-term commitment for both sides, but from the Cardinals' perspective, it's hard to argue that someone with Rodriguez's profile is as "safe" a bet as there is.

Chaim Bloom showed his cards a bit in July when they locked in an eight-year extension with JJ Wetherholt in the midst of his rookie year. Bloom has since spoken about how it's something they were exploring as far back as spring training, so clearly this front office group is comfortable with the idea of getting long-term deals done with youngsters.

Rodriguez hasn't appeared in a Triple-A game yet, but I really don't think that matters. An extension could still see him start the year in the minor leagues, but it at least locks in long-term financial security for Rodriguez, and it allows St. Louis to breathe knowing that their potential superstar is going to be in a Cardinals' uniform for a long time.

And given the recent trend of long-term deals for players who have yet to debut, there is plenty of precedent now for the Cardinals to work from.

Rainiel Rodriguez may land the bigget pre-debut extension with Cardinals in MLB history

Back on March 31st, the Seattle Mariners made MLB history by giving shortstop prospect Colt Emerson an eight-year, $95 million extension, the biggest deal handed out to a player who had not yet debuted, edging out Brewers' star Jackson Chourio's eight-year, $82 million agreement.

Wetherholt, Kevin McGonigle, Konnor Griffin, and Corbin Carroll have all inked deals north of $100 million guaranteed in total value, but each had at least some Major League games under their belt before those deals came to fruition. Griffin is an interesting case, as he only had five days of service time, so he basically was a pre-debut extension since the Pirates knew he was going to be signing that before he debuted.

All of those players were top 10 prospects in the entire sport (or had recently graduated and had that status) when those deals were inked, so they present interesting comps for the Cardinals in a potential deal with Rodriguez. Luis Lara, Cooper Pratt, and Colt Keith have all signed deals prior to their debuts recently as well, but none of them had the prospect pedigree that Rodriguez or those other names had.

Now, the elephant in the room that we just can't really address until after it comes to fruition is how the new CBA will impact this. A salary cap and/or limits on the size of contracts could significantly alter what a deal with Rodriguez could look like.

For example, MLB has proposed that free agents switching teams can only sign for a maximum of five years, $202 million, while players re-signing with their own clubs could sign for up to six years, $265 million during free agency. But in the case of Rodriguez, players who sign before hitting free agency can sign up to a 12-year, $500 million deal (12 years being the longest a player can sign if they do so with less than a year of service time).

I obviously do not think Rodriguez would be signing for a full 12-year, $500 million deal, but that new landscape may incentivise him to sign early since the ceiling for his earnings long-term has been capped compared to what the old system allowed for.

And for the Cardinals, MLB has also proposed expanding incentives for the Prospect Promotion Incentives program so that teams can earn even more draft capital if a player wins or finishes high in Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young voting. One idea was giving the winning player's club an extra draft pick in both the domestic draft and international draft (if one is added), and then players who finish second or third in Rookie of the Year voting or fourth or fifth in Cy Young/MVP voting can also earn their club a selection in the international draft. That adds an interesting wrinkle if the Cardinals have Rodriguez, Leo Bernal, and Joshua Baez all competing for the Rookie of the Year award next year.

I fully expect both sides to explore an extension once the dust settles, and if all goes well, Rodriguez will join Wetherholt has two mainstays in the Cardinals lineup who are locked in for a long-time.

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