Cardinals Rumors: Cody Bellinger trade gives glimpse of Nolan Arenado's value

On Tuesday, the Chicago Cubs traded outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees. The Cubs sent $5 million in cash as well, and they received reliever Cody Poteet from the Yankees.

Bellinger, who will turn 30 in July, has reestablished himself after a couple of down years with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021 and 2022. Bellinger racked up 4.4 bWAR in 2023, his first year with the Cubs, thanks to a .307/.356/.525 slash line and 26 home runs. He took a step back last year, and he finished the year with a slash line of .266/.325/.426 and only 18 home runs. However, Bellinger has Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player trophies in his cabinet, so stardom is in his DNA.

What does this trade from a division rival to an American League team mean for the St. Louis Cardinals?

Well, it gives us an idea of what the market for third baseman Nolan Arenado could be.

Despite not officially requesting a trade, Arenado has allowed the Cardinals to explore his market. He holds a no-trade clause, so any deals the Cardinals can muster must be approved by the eight-time All-Star. Arenado is four years older than Bellinger, and he's owed significantly more over the next three years.

Belli is on the books for $27.5 million next year, and he holds a player option worth $25 million in 2026; he's a free agent after that. Thanks to $10 million from the Colorado Rockies, Arenado's deal rests at three years and $64 million remaining. There's a bit of a price discrepancy between the two players, especially considering the cash Chicago is kicking in.

Poteet, the player whom the Cubs received in return, threw only 24.1 innings last year for the Yankees, but he had a 2.22 ERA. Prior to his time in New York, Poteet played for the Marlins in 2021 and 2022. For his major-league career, the 30-year-old reliever has tossed only 83 innings across 24 games and 13 starts with a 3.80 ERA.

That's not a very inspiring return for Cardinal fans who were hopeful of a strong package for Arenado.

Nolan Arenado is four years older than Bellinger, and he's more costly over a longer period of time. Neither of those facts play in the Cardinals' favor. Additionally, Arenado has really fallen off from his MVP-level performance in 2022. His OPS+ was 109 in 2023 and 99 in 2024, and his defense has shown some cracks lately as well. Arenado is open to playing first base to sweeten his value, but that may not be enough.

Now, the kicker here would be how much money the Cardinals decide to include in an Arenado trade. The more money they send, the better package they get in return. According to Derrick Goold, the baseline value here would be $15 million.

Sending $10 million gets Arenado's contract to the same level, albeit in one extra year, to Bellinger's remaining salary. If the Cardinals can up their cash exchange to $30 million, nearly half of the remaining value of Nado's contract, they can get a legitimate prospect back.

There's another side to this story. The Cardinals could find a team interested in pawning off one of its pricey players to help the Cardinals fill a need on their team. Perhaps the Yankees would listen on Marcus Stroman. Maybe a Seattle Mariners pitcher could be had with the right package. Casey Mize, anyone? The Astros have been rumored to be willing to trade Framber Valdez. The Angels are reportedly on Arenado's list, and Reid Detmers could have fallen out of grace with Perry Minasian.

The Cody Bellinger-to-New York trade tells us that without a significant chunk of change, Nolan Arenado won't fetch much on the open market. The DeWitts should make themselves comfortable with eating some cash if they want to get the most out of a deal involving Nolan Arenado this offseason. Otherwise, we may be stuck with receiving a 30-year-old reliever with limited run in the majors for a perennial All-Star and future Hall of Famer.