Cardinals outfield may have widest range of outcomes in rebuild season

Now that Lars Nootbaar's status to start the year has been made official, the St. Louis Cardinals have set their roster to include an outfield of question marks. As expected, Victor Scott II will handle center field duties, while Jordan Walker looks to move past yet another offseason of swing reconstruction in right field. Left field was the spot open for competition behind Nootbaar, with Nathan Church eventually beating out non-roster invitee Nelson Velázquez for part of the job.

The entire Cardinals outfield could be playing for their long-term future in 2026.

It was never a question that Victor Scott II would be manning center field come the regular season, a job he has had for two seasons since debuting in 2024. His defense has been nothing short of spectacular, as he just missed out on a Gold Glove award this year, but his offense has yet to match his output at the minor league level. To be fair to VSII, he was called up out of necessity due to late spring injuries to the rest of the outfield and he skipped Triple-A completely, a move typically made for offensively advanced top prospects. While Scott hit over .300 and stole 94 bases the year before, he did so in Double-A and was overpowered in his first big league stint. Now, he has reworked his swing and is ready to take his offense to the next level in an effort to be a catalyst at the bottom of the Cardinals' order. With a goal of 70 stolen bases, Scott will need to find any way possible to get on base to wreak havoc on opposing pitchers.

Standing next to VSII in right field will be Jordan Walker, the former top prospect who has gone through every swing change and mechanical adjustment possible in just three big league seasons. Confidence in Walker was at an all-time low this spring as the strikeout issues continued, but the outfielder finished the exhibition season with a bang, hitting his first homer in his last game. Some fans were hoping that Walker would be sent down to Memphis to start the year, but with only one option season remaining and nobody really knocking down the door behind him, it made the most sense for Walker to at least get his extended opportunity to open the season. With the lack of competition behind him and low expectations for the Cardinals in 2026, giving Walker "one last chance" to put his potential into reality is the best play. The organization could set evaluation checkpoints on the right fielder, with another progress check being around the All-Star break, especially if anyone in the minors is pushing for a promotion.

Over in left field is where we will most likely see a cycle of players rather than one set starter. With Nootbaar on the shelf until at least Memorial Day, the Cardinals are set to roll with Nathan Church as his direct replacement, with Thomas Saggese and Jose Fermin available to fill in as needed. Church, to me, might be one of the more underrated pieces on the roster. He has always been solid defensively, but he progressed with the bat in a way that the Cardinals hope Scott will be able to do. While the major league stats do not show much yet, Church had only 56 inconsistent at-bats prior to this season. He displayed increased power in the minors last season, hitting a career-high 13 homers while putting up a .329 average to go along with 16 stolen bases. If Marmol decides on some sort of platoon in the outfield, Church should still garner most of the at-bats as a lefty hitter, but he could give way to either Saggese or Fermin on the other days. With both of those players on the roster, I am not sure what to expect out of either, as I anticipated one would be in the majors while the other would be in Triple-A.

Memphis will have Velazquez, along with Joshua Baez and Bryan Torres, patrolling the outfield, all of whom could become options for the major league team as the season progresses. Fermin is out of options, so any demotion would have him exposed to waivers first, which may work in his favor if the organization thinks he would be swiped up by another team. That could leave Saggese as a player going up and down, trading major league experience for minor league playing time to keep him fresh for an eventual longer-term opportunity. The Cardinals could also opt to run a hot hand approach in left field, cycling through players in the midst of a hot streak.