Cardinals' Nolan Gorman is trying to reinvent himself, and it might change everything

This is obviously going to be an interesting season for the St. Louis Cardinals. There have already been highs and lows from spring training — as is to be expected. Prediction markets hate this team more than Cal Raleigh hates dapping up teammates on opposing WBC teams, while some opinion makers are a little higher. For me, one of the nexus points of the roster this year is Nolan Gorman.

Gorman will be turning 26 years old in May. His car insurance is finally starting to get cheaper. He can still be on his parents' health insurance plan (though surely to goodness the Cardinals give these guys excellent health insurance policies, right??). And yet, this season will define the rest of Gorman’s professional career, for better or worse. ZiPS has him projected for 21 homers this season. Over on our Redbird Rundown podcast, we chose over or under on this (and many other!) projections and used it as a jumping-off point to discuss this pivotal season.

We all know the blemishes in Gorman’s game. They are as obvious as the blemishes on a pimply-faced teenager. His career strikeout rate is north of 30%. That is going to put a serious ceiling on how effective you can be as a hitter when you’re handing a third of your at-bats directly to the other team. While it makes some fans uncomfortable, the trade-off for all this swing and miss you’re hoping to get is power. If you’re lucky, you’ll get Sheev Palpatine unlimited power. (Star Wars fans, I know you just heard that voice.) 

Gorman has shown flashes of success as an above-average MLB hitter in the past. It's possible it could resurface.

In 2023, we saw the best version of this from Gorman. He posted a .236/.328/.478 line with 27 homers — that was good enough for a 118 wRC+. Not too shabby for a 23-year-old hitter in 119 games. Since then, he’s been searching to return to that point. I should note that even during that season, his K rate was still north of 30%, so you can be a valuable hitter even if you strike out a lot. It just doesn’t give you many other paths to being productive. It’s like smothering your steak in A1 sauce the second you get it. I like A1 sauce, but you’ve really closed off all other possibilities at that point.

But right now, something is happening in Florida that we should all take note of. Well, sure, Florida man has probably committed another bizarre crime. (Seriously, Google Florida man and your birthday and see what pops up. Here’s mine — you’re welcome!) But Nolan Gorman is a leopard trying to change his spots before our eyes. Just so everyone knows, spring training stats don’t prove anything. I even wrote about it here if you want the full argument, but his approach at the plate just might.

Gorman's new approach at the plate is paying dividends in spring training so far

As of this writing, Gorman is on a heater in spring training. He’s running a .267/.353/.667 line. That’s good for a 154 wRC+. Cue the cartoon level eye-popping. If he manages to do something like that in the regular season, this team is going to be sniffing around a wild-card spot. Now, let’s all drink some spring training-flavor settle-down juice and take a step back. What’s the most obvious difference in what Gorman is doing?

The strikeout rate is the key. He’s running a 14.7% strikeout rate. That’s transformative. That’s Optimus Prime-level transformative. (I’d pay a lot of money to have the voice that voice actor does.) Marmol hosted a very cool call with Cardinals bloggers in which he mentioned that Gorman has changed his swing path and is easing into it. What does that mean? He’s literally not swinging as hard until his muscle memory adjusts to the new path. The early results are that it’s leading to more contact without sacrificing any of the power. Fewer strikeouts, more contact, with the same power? Let’s freeze this moment like Ted Williams (that may have gone too far) and copy and paste that for the regular season.

Can he do it in the regular season? I don’t know. Am I heartened he’s going to try? You betcha. That’s actually my overarching takeaway here. This organization, with its vastly expanded player support staff, seems poised to do this on repeat. They rebuilt Josh Baez. Pitchers are throwing new pitches and refining their mixes. Even if it doesn’t work out for Gorman, the template is there to rinse and repeat this process on the bevy of high-profile prospects that are marching towards St. Louis.

Even if Nolan Gorman’s strikeout rate doesn’t carry over into the regular season, it tells me something about how this organization will be improving players going forward, rather than watching them stagnate, trading them, and having them blossom elsewhere. That is far more important than any one player.