Back at the 2019 trade deadline, John Mozeliak was asked whether or not he'd be willing to move St. Louis Cardinals' top prospect Dylan Carlson to upgrade their roster, to which he responded to KMOX's Tom Ackerman with this infamous quote:
“Only if you’re willing to pry him through my dead hands.”
Carlson, who was non-tendered by the Tampa Bay Rays earlier this offseason, now sits alone as the youngest free agent available this offseason with at least 50 plate appearances at the Major League level. I am sure he will find a landing spot at some point this offseason, but it's quite the fall from for a player who was once mentioned alongside names like Albert Pujols and Oscar Taveras.
Carlson, 26, has produced at the major league level before, but the last few years have been filled with struggles and injuries. Carlson finished third in National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2021 after slashing .266/.343/.437 and posting a 2.4 fWAR in 149 games. That next summer, the Cardinals moved Harrison Bader in a trade, opening up the center field job for Carlson to run with. He did so at first, but after injuring his wrist, he never looked the same again.
In 2023, Carlson played in just 76 games, hitting 17% below league average and equating to exactly 0 fWAR. In 2024, Carlson was having himself a great Spring Training but had a freak injury after colliding with Jordan Walker in the final games of camp, and when he returned during the season, he was just awful, posting a 51 wRC+ and -0.8 fWAR for St. Louis.
The Cardinals eventually moved Carlson at the deadline for reliever Shawn Armstrong, and so ended the outfielder's wildly dissapointing time with the organization.
Hopefully Carlson can find an organization that believes in him this offseason and can help him get his career back on track.
Cardinals News: Trade pivot, ownership group details revealed
While both Nolan Arenado and the Cardinals' front office would prefer to part ways this offseason, there is no guarantee the right trade will come their way, and so the organization is preparing for other ways to cut payroll, if necessary.
Two names to keep an eye on for the Cardinals to potentially move are both in their rotation - Erick Fedde and Steven Matz. Both players are in contract years, with Fedde set to make $7.5 million and Matz slated to earn $12.5 million in 2025.
Both starters, especially Fedde, should be available in trade talks regardless. Fedde carries real value on the trade market and can help the Cardinals reset with the assets he brings back, while Matz won't bring back much value but is clearly coveted by other teams in baseball.
The fact that the Cardinals seem more motivated by shedding payroll than getting a real return should frustrate Cardinals' fans. If they are making trades that are trying to maximize the value they get in return, that's great. But moving players like Fedde mainly for payroll reasons is tragic.
Lastly, I wanted to highlight some really good reporting from Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. Jones dove deep into the Cardinals' Spring Training Complex renovations recently, as a result, uncovered some details about the Cardinas' ownership group and "additional investors" beyond the DeWitt family.
While the team lists 14 "additional investors", Jones was able to obtain documents that listed six corporate entities with at least 5% ownership interest in the team. You can find more information about that here if you are subscribed to the Bellville News-Democrat, it's fascinating stuff.