Well, folks, be prepared for a difficult offseason.
While the St. Louis Cardinals' front office and ownership have been hinting at trading away veterans to lean more youthful and inexpensive, specific names and players haven't been listed. Fans have largely been able to speculate, some more hesitantly than others, who will stay and who will go.
Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Erick Fedde, and Ryan Helsley would be the most talented veterans to be traded. Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz would be the other side of this (apparently very expensive) coin. Several of those players would net a strong return of prospects from a variety of teams while also seeing their contracts go elsewhere. Moving others may not be worth the effort.
John Denton of MLB.com recently appeared on The Opening Drive for 101 ESPN. The bulk of the conversation with Randy, Brooke, and Dan revolved around the front office shake-up. He also braced fans for potentially franchise-altering trades this offseason.
"There's a lot up in the air still with the revenue streams...We all know that there are going to be certain guys that are not going to be back here. When Ryan Helsley is not back here next season, it's going to be incredibly painful...I don't believe Nolan Arenado wants to go through a rebuild...A lot of those guys aren't going to be back here. It wouldn't shock me if the payroll is maybe cut by a third...They're going to get rid of these high-priced guys...Fans need to get ready for it now."John Denton
Yikes.
Let's break that down. Denton first mentions Ryan Helsley. He, out of all of the "pricey" veterans, makes the most sense to trade. He has tremendous value right now for a reliever, and he would net the greatest return outside of Sonny Gray more than likely. That is a trade that, for as much as it would pain the fanbase, makes a fair amount of sense to do.
Denton then mentions Nolan Arenado as a potential trade candidate. That's possible, but Nolan Arenado's contract is costly, and he has a no-trade clause attached, not to mention his production has dipped each year since 2022.
Finally, the payroll is discussed. Denton says that he expects payroll to be cut by about a third from 2024. With departures of free agents such as Paul Goldschmidt, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge, the Cardinals could cut their payroll down to $115.2 million for 2025. That's a $60 million decrease from 2024, according to Spotrac. By just shedding the onerous contracts of their potential free agents, the Cardinals have already reached that "one-third" goal.
However, that may not be enough for an ownership group that has become tight-fisted lately. There's a reinvestment into player development going on inside the front office and in the minor leagues. That will cost money -- though the price tag there is up for debate still. The team's regional sports network deal is also in flux still, and the uncertainty surrounding that situation has given the DeWitt family some pause with spending their money.
Justified or not, the Cardinals will be reducing their payroll significantly this offseason. That will likely mean key veterans like Ryan Helsley, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado could be traded. It will be tough to see a franchise that has had stars on it for over two decades on it take a step back and lean into a youth movement. Luckily, the Cardinals have plenty of budding stars, and the recent hirings on the coaching staff and in the front office have proven success in player development.
The times are a-changing in St. Louis. No longer will they be mentioned with high-priced free agents. Now, they'll remain more internally driven. Prepare yourself for some offloading and some slow regular seasons these next few years.