#2 - Ryan Helsley
Speaking of real value, Ryan Helsley can provide that for a contending team in 2025, and the Cardinals are not one of those. That means they need to trade him with only one year left of control before he hits free agency.
I hate the idea of losing Helsley, but it makes way more sense to get a great return for him than to have an elite closer for at best a low 80s win team in 2025. Many would argue that the Cardinals should have pulled that trigger at this past trade deadline, and I can't argue with them.
Helsley is due for a massive payday next offseason, something I do not envision the Cardinals coming anywhere close to. We've seen Edwin Diaz sign a five-year, $102 million deal and Josh Hader get a five-year, $95 million deal as well. I'm not sure Helsley will match those numbers, but he'll be in the ballpark for sure.
Considering the fact the Cardinals do not sign starting pitchers to deals like that and rarely do with position players, I think it is safe to say they will not be bringing back a closer on that kind of deal.
Instead, the Cardinals can look at recent examples of elite closers being moved in trades, like the Brewers shipping off Josh Hader to the Padres or the Cubs acquiring a rental Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees in 2016. Neither deal is a perfect match for Helsley's situation, but both did net a good return for the selling club.
Even with Hader struggling in 2022, the Brewers managed to get a good closer in return in Taylor Rogers, a bounce-back candidate starting pitcher in Dinelson Lamet, and two of the Padres' top ten prospects for Hader. I think it's safe to say the Brewers sold Hader at his lowest value as well, even with the year and a half remaining of control. I would be shocked if Helsley did not bring back more in return.
The Cubs traded away a top 50 prospect in all of baseball in Gleyber Torres, along with pitcher Adam Warren and two minor league outfielders to acquire a half-season of Chapman on their World Series run in 2016. The deal for Chapman was extremely aggressive, to say the least, but worth it for a club seeking to win its first World Series in over 100 years. It was probably an overpay by value standards, but considering Helsley has a full year of control, I think it provides a good idea of what he could be worth.
And unlike most of the names on this list, Helsley does not have a no-trade clause, meaning the Cardinals can take the best possible package offered to them and even create a bit of a bidding war. Especially when you consider the weak reliever class we are going to see this offseason.
In free agency, there is not a dominant reliever who is expected to get a mega-deal this offseason. There are a lot of guys who could be good value play, but if a club wants to lock down the ninth inning next year, Helsley is far and away the best option for them.