Cardinals' Helsley exhibits potentially worrisome velocity plunge in spring debut

Spring Training is a gigantic tease for baseball fans. As much as people can attempt to analyze results to try and predict regular-season success, Spring Training has proven time and again to be an illusion with little bearing on teams' and players' later performance.

Despite this, it's nearly impossible to resist attempting to glean something out of a player and spot differences in Spring Training from how he looked in the previous season. That's what St. Louis Cardinals fans are doing with star closer Ryan Helsley, who showed what could be a considered a concerning dip in velocity in his first Spring Training appearance.

In an uninspiring debut performance, Helsley allowed three hits and two earned runs in a 16-pitch inning on Feb. 24 against the New York Mets while sitting at an average fastball velocity of 95.5 mph. That is 4.1 mph slower than his average fastball in 2024 and could be a cause for concern.

Helsley's undercooked fastball could be a sign of something amiss.

A large number of major league pitchers undergo Tommy John surgery at some point in their career. The 30-year-old Helsley has never had the procedure, but lower velocity is often an early sign that the season-ending operation may be needed.

If Helsley were to require Tommy John surgery, it would be a devastating blow to the Cardinals in 2025, but even more so for the future. If the Cardinals want to restock the club with young talent, Helsley would be a prime candidate for the team to flip to a contender at the trade deadline. But if he's hurt, he obviously won't be able to contribute to a team down the stretch, forcing him to stick on the Cardinals roster and be lost to free agency following the season.

The good news is that starting Spring Training with lesser stuff is not new for Helsley. In his first appearance in Spring Training of 2024, Helsley's fastball averaged 96.2 mph. When one factors in the usual age-related velocity decrease to account for the .7 mph slower fastball than that of last spring, this could simply be par for the course as the Cardinals' incumbent closer ramps up for the season.

Health permitting, Helsley should be in for another excellent year in 2025, and he may have a new toy to tempt batters with, as he has added a cut fastball to his arsenal. It's impossible to overstate how crucial a healthy season for Helsley is. With him as perhaps the Cardinals' most valuable piece in trade talks, a season-ending injury could knock the Cardinals severely off track.