Cardinals have not ruled out bringing back their biggest free agent

The St. Louis Cardinals are in unfamiliar territory this offseason as they look to prioritize young talent, cut some payroll, and shift expectations for winning to beyond the 2025 season. All of those things would seem to point to a parting of ways between the organization and its biggest free agent in Paul Goldschmidt.

Well, according to reporting from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (subscription required), the Cardinals have not ruled out a reunion with the 2022 National League Most Valuable Player.

Goold noted the many obstacles between a reunion with Goldschmidt, but did say a team official has not ruled it out, depending on what kind of offers he gets from other teams and if he is willing to sign a deal in the range the Cardinals would want to offer.

During the Cardinals' final series of the 2024 season, Katie Woo of The Athletic (subscription required) reported that the club intended to part ways with Goldschmidt this offseason, and that seems to be the theme around baseball and in both Woo and Goold's reporting. But, as John Mozeliak indicated when they declined club options on Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Keynan Middleton, the Cardinals are trying to enter the winter with maximum flexibility.

Is there a scenario where it makes sense to bring back Paul Goldschmidt?

On the surface, this reunion does not make much sense. Aside from the payroll side of things, Goldschmidt would block the likes of Alec Burleson, Luken Baker, and potentially some Cardinal catchers from getting playing time at first base in 2025. If the goal is to let the kids play, then Goldschmidt does not fit in St. Louis.

I highly doubt Goldschmidt is going to take on a role like Matt Carpenter did this past season, which would make a reunion make a lot more sense. Goldschmidt, even after a down year, is going to want to have an everyday role as a club's first baseman, likely with a contending team as well.

So what scenario would it makes sense to bring Goldschmidt back in?

I think of this question like a flowchart. As things stand today, it is going to take a unique path of decision making to lead to the decions where "yes" to resigning Goldschmidt is a realistic outcome.

First, I think we'd have to see the Cardinals trade away one or two of Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras. Should the club do that, they'd have more money off their books than I assume they'll actually be cutting from payroll, and they would have a little bit of room in their lineup to add a veteran bat to the mix like Goldschmidt. I'm not saying it is what I would do, but I do think it opens up their interest a bit.

Second, teams around the league would have to not be as interested in Goldschmidt as he'd want them to be. While I do believe there will be a contender who is interested in seeing what Goldschmidt can do for them, it would not be shocking at all to see clubs prefer to maintain financial flexibility and internal options over Goldschmidt.

And even then, it would also require the Cardinals and Goldschmidt to find common ground in the kind of deal they'd agree to. Even with the club cost-cutting, I don't think it's impossible they'd be interested in a one-year deal in the $10 million, perhaps up to $15 million range.

If all of those things come together, then I think a Goldschmidt reunion is possible for the Cardinals. But the likelihood of the stars aligning in that way seems rather low to me.

I still recommend assuming Goldschmidt is with another club in 2025, but there does seem to be a world where he could return, even if it is a rather unlikely one.