Alex Bregman's market doesn't mean a lot to the St. Louis Cardinals or their fans, but his ultimate decision could create a domino effect that alters the trajectory of the Redbirds.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have emerged as one of the favorites for the star third baseman, which, given the rumors surrounding Ketel Marte (who has the Cardinals on his no-trade list), could force a reshuffling in the desert.
"It's a matter of time before (the Diamondbacks) get Alex Bregman. I think that's a done deal to be honest with you," @danbickley says on @Bickley_Marotta.
— Arizona Sports (@AZSports) December 26, 2025
He added Bregman wants to live in Arizona year-round the same way Corbin Burnes did last offseason. pic.twitter.com/1y8KnXz35D
However, if the Diamondbacks want to retain Marte and sign Bregman, they may need to shed salary elsewhere on the roster. That's where the Cardinals come in — more than just a salary dump (like when they offloaded Erick Fedde on the Braves), St. Louis could be well compensated in terms of prospects if they're willing to assume a big contract from Arizona's payroll.
Cardinals could demand a fair prospect haul for taking on Eduardo Rodriguez's salary
Eduardo Rodriguez has mostly been a bust in Arizona since signing a four-year, $80 million deal, and the remaining two years and $40 million on his contract may be prohibiting the Diamondbacks from signing Bregman without trading Marte.
If the Diamondbacks are willing to send a legitimate prospect or two to the Cardinals along with Rodriguez in exchange for salary relief, would both sides amenable to a trade?
This type of "salary offset" move is far more common in the NBA, when rebuilding (tanking) teams with lots of room under the salary cap take on burdensome contracts in exchange for young players or draft picks.
Salary offsets aren't quite as popular in baseball — the inability to trade most draft picks tends to get in the way of these kinds of trades — but they do exist. Think about when the Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez for a bunch of low-level prospects and the cost of taking on Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford's salaries.
This wouldn't be quite the same, since the Cardinals would want prospects for taking on Rodriguez's salary, rather than a proven star like Gonzalez. Still, the formula is clear, and the Diamondbacks have all the incentive in the world to part with quality minor leaguers if it means an easier path to signing Bregman.
Plus, Rodriguez isn't a complete wash. Yes, he's got a 5.02 ERA (4.57 FIP) in two years with the Diamondbacks, but he was a sixth-place Cy Young finisher in 2019 and recorded a 3.30 ERA and 3.2 bWAR in 2023 with the Tigers. If he turns things around in the first half of the 2026 season, he could become yet another valuable trade chip for Chaim Bloom to dangle for prospects at the deadline (or next offseason).
It's not the most glamorous kind of trade — if anything, it helps the Diamondbacks win — but it is a path for the Cardinals to overhaul their farm system even more quickly after already trading away Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras. With little left to deal in terms of veteran assets, perhaps it's time for the front office to get into the business of "buying" bad contracts.
