Cardinals asset is a 'Royal' fit as the Winter Meetings draw near

The St. Louis Cardinals continue their offseason hunt for more controllable pitching. Lars Nootbaar is a Statcast darling with two years remaining of team control. Putting those together creates a trade chip that could garner substantial talent in return.

But...in the last four years, Noot has missed 28% of games played due to injuries. Noot's OPS+ has fallen each year since his breakout 2022 season. This winter, Noot is rehabbing from his surgery for Haglund's deformities in hopes of an April return to the lineup. That said, an "upside" return might be more prudent than holding an asset for only the possibility of a "substantial" return.

Bring in the Kansas City Royals and their offseason wants. According to MLB Trade Rumors, KC is seeking some OF help to upgrade its MLB-worst collective outfielders' slash line of .225/.285/.348 for 2025.

Lars Nootbaar's career .242/.341/.406 slash instantly improves KC's OF production.

The Royals are offering starting pitching. With Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Noah Cameron set to anchor the rotation, that leaves several others available as trade chips.

Trade #1 - Lars Nootbaar for Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert

Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert were 2025 trade deadline acquisitions from the Padres. Neither pitcher will hit free agency until 2031. These two RHP were more than adequate back-of-the-rotation pitchers in 2025, with a sub-4.00 ERA and a sub-1.26 WHIP. Both are RHP who have thrown 350+ innings in the minors. These are two cost-controlled arms that can definitely bridge the gap to 2028, if not beyond.

Trade #2 - Lars Nootbaar for Kris Bubic

Kris Bubic is an intriguing asset for KC as well. The 28-year-old LHP is heading into his final year before free agency. After a successful return from a 2023 Tommy John surgery, Bubic has turned the corner with a combined 2.58 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 47 games. With a July 2024 return, the Royals managed his innings workload out of the bullpen to the tune of 11.6 K/9 and a 1.5 BB/9. In 2025, Bubic returned to the rotation, putting up numbers that earned him a trip to the All-Star Game.

Unfortunately, a rotator cuff strain ended his season in late July. But he was cleared for a throwing program back in November, and the Royals believe he will be ready to go for Spring Training.

Bubic would bring that veteran leadership to a Cardinals Sonny Gray-less rotation.

Learning lessons

It's a shame the former STL front office team was not forward-thinking enough last offseason when Noot had true high upside value. Much like the Erick Fedde debacle of last season, this too could end with the same result. Sometimes it's better to let an asset be moved before running any remaining value into the ground. We'll have to wait and see if Chaim Bloom feels that way as well.