Cardinals’ 2027 rotation is shaping up to be their most exciting in years

From 2020-2026, the St. Louis Cardinals built, whether it was their aim at times or the reality they found themselves in, pretty uninspiring starting rotations. That's about to change in 2027.

2020 and 2021 saw the Cardinals try to patch together their rotation led by Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, and Jack Flaherty with young arms coming through the system who weren't quite ready yet and veterans like J.A. Happ, Jon Lester, and Wade Leblanc.

2022 was the year they pushed their chips in a bit, acquiring Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana at the trade deadline to try and push for a World Series run, and then 2023 was the year the house of cards came crashing down, leading to a 5.08 ERA from that group.

2024 and 2025 were attempts to get back on track on the fly, bringing in veterans like Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Erick Fedde until the likes of Michael McGreevy, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, and Kyle Leahy were ready to handle more significant roles. And then came this past season, when the Cardinals rotation, outside of Dustin May, was all young, internally developed arms, something we had not seen in the Cardinals rotation in quite some time.

From 2020-2026, the Cardinals' rotation ranks 19th in baseball with a 4.34 ERA, which feels very accurate to the reality of the last seven seasons. Some really bad years mixed in there, but for the most part, pretty average to slightly below-average production from that group.

One major reason for that has been the lack of upside among their rotation options. Outside of Adam Wainwright a bit in the early 2020s and then Sonny Gray from 2024-2025, there really weren't high-level starters the Cardinals could rely on. Honestly, they were just boring groups. Boring can get you some safe results, but it doesn't lead to championships.

Sure, some guys had "moments" like Jordan Montgomery or Kwang Hyun Kim, but rarely did it feel like the Cardinals had more than one, if even any, guys who could lead a staff because of their stuff, not just their ability to post on a consistent basis.

The Cardinals should actually have that kind of upside in their rotation next season.

The Cardinals 2027 rotation should have a lot of dynamic arms to turn to

In 2027, Kyle Leahy will be looking to build upon his breakout campaign, where his 2.70 ERA in his last 16 starts ranked 13th in all of baseball, and his 26% K-rate was 21st, even better than arms like Paul Skenes, Hunter Brown, Cristopher Sanchez, and Drew Rasmussen. Quinn Mathews should be in the rotation for a full season after posting a 3.83 ERA in his first nine big-league starts, and both Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy carried sub-4.00 ERAs for the season.

Add to that a dynamic group of young arms ready to contribute in Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, and Richard Fitts as soon as Opening Day, and prospects like Tanner Franklin, Liam Doyle, Jurrangelo Cijntje, and Mason Molina following close behind.

The bar for higher levels of swing-and-miss in the Cardinals rotation could barely be lower. Since 2020, Cardinals starters rank 29th in baseball in K% (19.1%), and that's one number I expect to begin shifting in a major way soon. Mathews, Leahy, and Liberatore all posted K% north of 21% in 2026, and the likes of Roby, Hjerpe, Fitts, Doyle, Franklin, Cijntje, and Molina all boast much better strikeout stuff than the Cardinals have typically had.

A young rotation will likely bring some hiccups along the way. There may be stretches where the results look pretty rough, but important development is occuring in the midst of that. But on the flip side, we may see some stretches from that rotation that we just haven't seen from a group of Cardinals starters in quite some time - glimpses of a rotation that could compete in October at some point.

The Cardinals' pitching pipeline is in a really fun spot right now. They have quality rotation depth at the Major League level that they haven't had in quite some time, and the beginnings of these upside arms that have started to join them (Mathews, Hjerpe, and Leahy) and will continue to join them as more prospects debut.

And once those arms get rolling, watch out. The Cardinals will be ready to make some noise again.

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