Quinn Mathews' overlooked season should spark hope for the Cardinals' future

The beauty of a 162-game season (and don't you DARE change that, MLB) is the stories that every team weaves over the course of that marathon. The St. Louis Cardinals saw Jordan Walker achieve his long-awaited breakout, JJ Wetherholt compete for the Rookie of the Year crown, and Leo Bernal go bonkers after his debut. But one player whom many fans glossed over as they watched these journeys unfold was Quinn Mathews, the left-handed pitcher who was quietly excellent in his first taste of major league action.

Across nine starts since his debut on Aug. 1, Mathews had a 3.83 ERA in 49.1 innings, with 46 strikeouts and 20 walks. But that's not the full story. Brandon Kiley on the 101 ESPN show "BK & Ferrario" crunched some numbers and discovered that the last Cardinal to have his first nine career appearances all be starts was Joe Kelly in 2012. During that span, Kelly pitched to an outstanding 2.96 ERA.

Kiley also name-dropped three other pitchers over the past 20 years who had a sub-4 ERA in their first nine appearances with at least five starts among them: Kwang Hyun Kim, Anthony Reyes and Tim Cooney (although Cooney only pitched in six games during his brief career, all as a starter).

Mathews is in very select company with his strong start, and the new player development staff is likely worthy of plenty of credit. Mathews was drafted under the John Mozeliak regime in 2023, so the coaches have had to work with a player who was chosen while the Cardinals were searching for different traits in their pitchers than they are now. That's a strong signifier of how flexible the coaches are in their ability to coax out solid results even in players who might not fit their mold.

Quinn Mathews could turn into a No. 2 starter or more for the Cardinals

Mathews' main bugaboo during his years in the minor leagues was control. In 2025, he walked 6.7 batters per nine innings across three levels, and during his time in Triple-A Memphis in 2026, he allowed 5.5 walks per nine innings. Something appeared to click once he ascended to the highest level, though, as Mathews held a much more respectable 3.6 walks per nine innings.

The Cardinals are expected to have Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy and Michael McGreevy in their rotation next season, with Matthew Liberatore a wild card. That would appear to put Mathews on track for the final spot, and if he can build on his strong first season, he has a chance to climb the rotation ladder quickly. There's little evidence that Mathews' 2026 was a fluke, as his FIP was exactly the same as his ERA, and he could leapfrog Liberatore and McGreevy, the latter of whom faded down the stretch as his numbers landed more in line with the expected outcomes.

The last truly successful pitcher whom the Cardinals drafted and developed may be Lance Lynn, taken all the way back in 2008, although Alex Reyes had a chance to be a star until injuries waylaid his career. Mathews could finally break the streak of disappointing homegrown arms, and he will hopefully be the first in a long line of successful young Cardinals pitchers, as they have plenty of prospects marinating in the minors.

Mathews' season got lost amid the hoopla of the Cardinals' position players, and he might warrant more excitement than he's received so far. The future looks bright in St. Louis, and Mathews' first season suggests that fans should see him as a cog in the rotation for the next competitive Cardinals squad.

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