Are the Cardinals' veteran pitchers actually blocking the team's top prospects?

The St. Louis Cardinals are stuck in a transition year, partially due to the fact their veteran starting pitchers were either unwilling to change teams (Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas) and the team not fielding calls from other organizations inquiring about Steven Matz and Erick Fedde. With each of these four pitchers looking to be rotation options at the start of the year, there is a feeling among fans that these arms are blocking the organization's top pitching prospects.

However, the Cardinals are not expected to compete this year, either by expert predictions or by fan sentiment, so my question is, would this be the best time to have young starters learn to pitch at the major league level? Pitchers thrive on confidence and the ability to string pitches, outs, innings, and games together. So if the team struggles to win, how can a pitcher gain confidence?

Are Gray, Mikolas, Matz, and Fedde actually blocking Quinn Mathews, Michael McGreevy, and Tink Hence?

My simple answer to this is no. At least, not yet. For one, each of those three prospects is 24 years old or younger and has a limited track record at the minor league level. Mathews, for example, has one season of professional baseball under his belt, and only 16.2 innings were spent in Triple-A. In Tink Hence's case, he has been a pro since 2021 but has yet to clear 100 innings at any level. Mathews and Hence have also been optioned to Minor League camp, burning one of their option seasons, so a quick recall to the Cardinals would have already been a potential waste of that option usage.

The argument can be made in McGreevy's case that he is the one who is the most major-league ready who is being held back by the veterans currently in the rotation. A deeper look into his pro career to this point could show that he has a little more fine-tuning to do, and it would probably be best for his development to not have to learn against major league hitters. While McGreevy had a strong 23-inning debut in St. Louis last season, his minor league performance shows that he still has a bit to go before being ready for a full season in the bigs. In four minor league seasons, he has a 4.13 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.

When looking at the current major league rotation, the expectation is that Andre Pallante is going to fill in the fifth spot for the time being. I continue to go back and forth with other fans on social media who say that Pallante has earned his spot because of his performance last season and we should not be concerned about his spring results thus far. However, isn't rewarding past performance how the Cardinals are in their current rotation conundrum? Mikolas, Matz, and Gray all received big contracts because of their past, so handing Pallante that spot because of his 2024 season would be replicating the same mistake that fans are currently irked by.

Another reason I feel these arms are not being blocked is because three of those veteran pitchers are on expiring contracts and, in the case of Matz and Fedde, may not even spend the entire season in St. Louis. For Matz, he has struggled to stay healthy since signing, but I am on the team's side with allowing him one more opportunity to prove his health and effectiveness in the rotation. If he performs well for a struggling team, the trade price for his services skyrocket in comparison to his current day value. If Matz were to get injured again or struggle as a starter, he could be moved to the bullpen, where has performed well in the past, or be released or traded for pennies on the dollar. If this were to happen, then one of the three prospects could seamlessly slot into the open rotation spot and receive a near-full season of major league innings.

Fedde is on a team-friendly deal and, like Matz, may not be in St. Louis beyond the July 31 trade deadline. With injuries piling up around the league, it may be in the Cardinals' best interest to start connecting with potential trade partners. Since nobody has played a meaningful game to this point, it is difficult for other organizations to truly determine their teams' strengths and weaknesses. While teams are most likely calling the Cardinals to check in on Fedde's services, I could see him pitching himself into a higher price range in terms of prospect return once the other teams know more about their season expectations.

Even if each of the above three veterans on expiring contracts were to spend the entire season in St. Louis, there is a close to zero chance any of them would be returning to the Cardinals in 2026. That would leave a starting rotation of Gray and Pallante with three open spots.

This could be the true transition that the Cardinals are looking at for their pitchers as they work towards 2026 being the actual year of the "youngry" players. I admit, I am extremely excited about the potential of Mathews, McGreevy, and Hence, but rushing them to the majors to play for a team with mediocre expectations may not be the best move for their careers.