A Cardinals-Phillies trade that fits both teams' competitive windows

With the proposed "reset" of the St. Louis Cardinals, rumors surrounding potential trade candidates have begun surfacing. Players like Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Ryan Helsley, and Nolan Arenado have been mentioned by multiple outlets as players who could see a change of scenery this offseason.

Today, I would like to focus on one of those players and finding a good fit for him. That man would be Nolan Arenado.

First, a primer on Arenado's contract situation. In 2022, Arenado opted into the final five years and $144 million on his contract, keeping him with the Cardinals through the 2027 season. As of now, he's owed $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027. The Colorado Rockies are paying down $5 million of his 2025 salary, but their contributions dry up after that. Arenado also has a no-trade clause that complicates trade situations.

Arenado as a player is an enticing trade candidate. His contract, however, makes things more complicated. He's relatively expensive for the production he will likely give these next few years especially considering the fact that he'll be 36 by the time his contract is up.

In order to trade Nolan Arenado, the Cardinals must find a willing partner who can take on a decent chunk of salary money while also providing a reasonable return. Additionally, Arenado must be interested in going to that team. His decision to opt into the final five years of his contract in 2022 lend fans to believe that he is in it for the long haul, but the team's stated desire to return to a youthful way of playing could change Arenado's willingness to stay in St. Louis.

Only a few teams in the league can boast large payrolls with a competitive window over the next three years. That quantity shrinks even further when you consider the teams Arenado may be willing to play for.

Arenado is a native of Los Angeles, so he could return home and play for the Dodgers, a team played Max Muncy primarily there in 2024. Muncy finished 2024 with 15 home runs and a .232/.358/.494 slash line, all figures comparable or better than Arenado's last year.

However, there may be another organization that is a better fit for Arenado's services: The Philadelphia Phillies.

Nolan Arenado provides another veteran presence for the World Series-hungry Phillies, and the Cardinals send some cash over to help offset the remaining $74 million. Now, Arenado's contract has an AAV of just under $20 million over the next three years, a much more manageable total.

In return, the Cardinals receive a young third baseman with some balance. Bohm slashed .280/.332/.448 from the right side of the plate last year with 15 home runs and five stolen bases; he accumulated four outs above average at the hot corner. Griff McGarry would be a viable reliever for the Cardinals, and the Phillies may be willing to move on from him after years of underperformance.

The Phillies receive a veteran who fits in their competitive window, and the Cardinals supplant an expensive veteran with a cost-controlled young player in Bohm.