Reacting to the Cardinals' top 7 trade candidates ranking from MLBTR

Erick Fedde (#2 Cardinals trade candidate, #3 overall)

I think this one is going to surprise a lot of people. Adams had Fedde as the second-highest-ranked Cardinal on his list and the third-ranked among all potential trade candidates this offseason, and I wholeheartedly agreed with his thought process.

Fedde has gotten a lot of flack from Cardinals fans since being acquired by the club at the trade deadline. Part of that was because of what Tommy Edman went on to do with the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, but the industry seems to view Fedde in a much better light than Cardinals' fans seem to.

Fedde posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 177.1 innings this season in his first season back from the KBO. Things weren't as good in St. Louis as they were with the White Sox, but he still managed a 3.72 in his 10 starts with the Cardinals. Fedde is not some ace or front-line starter, but he proved he can be a highly effective middle-of-the-rotation starter this year, and did so while being paid at a bargain rate for that production.

Fedde is set to make $7.5 million in the final year of his deal with the Cardinals in 2025, and teams would be looking at paying at least double that to Fedde on a one-year deal if he were to hit free agency. So many teams are going to be interested in adding an arm like that to their rotation this offseason. In fact, I'd argue he may generate the most trade interest of any player this offseason since every club needs pitching.

While Fedde won't bring the Cardinals back a blockbuster return, I do think he can help them bolster their farm system in a meaningful way. I recently compared Fedde's value to that of Chris Bassitt's in the 2022 offseason, and he was able to snag the Athletics the Mets' fifth overall prospect and a throw-in piece as well. Something like that seems like the starting point in a Fedde trade this offseason.

Here's the other part of this that I'm not sure enough Cardinals fans have taken into account yet - Fedde should be by far the most likely starter traded this offseason from the Cardinals, above names like Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz.

In the cases of Mikolas and Matz, both are also on expiring deals, but neither has trade value in this market. Matz may be able to fetch the Cardinals a random prospect outside a club's top 30 this offseason, but I wouldn't expect much more for the oft-injured and seldom-effective lefty. Mikolas has been so bad the last two years and is due $18 million in 2025, so the Cardinals would have to eat significant money just to get a team to take a call.

Fedde, on the other hand, will clear $7.5 million off of their books and get the Cardinals real value in return. Remember, the club just traded Tommy Edman for Fedde and Pham at the deadline and the move was considered a steal by many within the industry by the Cardinals. John Mozeliak must prioritize dealing him this offseason. Holding onto Fedde would be a major mistake, and I do not feel the same about Mikolas or Matz due to their negative value.

Gray is a much more complicated situation, even though I believe he'd fetch a lot more in return compared to Feede. More on him later.

Helsley and Fedde should be as good as gone this offseason, so major thumbs up to Adams for those rankings. The rest of this list is where I have some disagreements with him.

Nolan Arenado (#3 Cardinals trade candidate, #10 overall)

I am on the fence about this ranking based on Adams' methodology, but I think what will surprise many Cardinals fans is how optimistic Adams was about Arenado's potential value to another club.

I have seen fans or other pundits talk about how Arenado may not be movable due to his large contract and declined performance, and while those are indeed concerns, Adams pointed to multiple ways that those have been overblown, things I have also been stating lately.

First, Arenado's deal is not as bad as people say it is. He's due $69 million over the next three seasons, but the Cardinals are receiving $5 million from the Rockies in both 2025 and 2026 towards his deal. So in reality, the Cardinals or any team acquiring him would just be on the hook for three years, $59 million, with salaries of $27 million in 2025, $22 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027.

Still not a great contract, I will for sure give you that, but not some immovable deal either. The Cardinals could also kick in some money themselves and really make this an affordable contract for a team to take on, thus increasing the value they can get in return.

In Arenado's current form, he is still a great defender who hits for average and above-average power. If he is able to tap back into any of that power, he would get back to being an All-Star level bat and would then be a bargain for any time taking him on. Yes, there is a risk that Arenado continues to decline in performance, but the potential of him being a 3.1 fWAR player each year at a thin position like third base and the upside of more is probably worth that risk.

I really do think it makes sense for both the Cardinals and Arenado to part ways this offseason. Where things get tricky is what teams would Areando actually sign off going to. The Los Angeles Dodgers are an obvious fit, but would he be willing to expand his options to other contenders in need of a bat like the Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, or others?

If Arenado's list of clubs he will sign off on is just the Dodgers, then the Cardinals' hands are tied in negotiations, just like the Rockies' were when they sent him to St. Louis in 2021. But if he is willing to open up those options, then St. Louis can probably get a decent return. I'm honestly not sure what that would be. Less than a Helsley for sure, but I'm not sure if he'd be more, less, or equal value to a Fedde. That also will depend on if the Cardinals eat any money.

I would not rule that possibility out, especially if the Cardinals move on from a few other deals this offseason. The club has already shaved significant salary space with their outgoing free agents, and even if they eat some of Arenado's deal, they'll still save $10m-$20m of his salary in 2025.

I would personally have Arenado lower on the list of Cardinals he listed. I'll get into the next two guys that were ranked lower than Areanado, but I feel like they are about as likely to move as Arenado would be, but are also far more valuable of assets.

Sonny Gray (#4 Cardinals trade candidate, #11 overall)

Let's start with the reasons it would be hard to trade Sonny Gray. First, he has a full no-trade clause and was very clear this past offseason that he wanted to play close to his home of Nashville, Tennessee, and that is unlikely to have changed. Second, the Cardinals heavily backloaded his contract, meaning there are still two years and $65 million owed to him.

Gray is also coming off a 3.84 ERA season, although his 3.12 FIP, 30.3 K%, and 5.8 BB% all indicate he was far more effective than some fans seem to believe he was. Gray had a massive spike in his home run rate this year and was terrible on the road, and if those things even out a bit, Gray should be pitching like a front-line starter again.

We all know how much of an arms race today's game is. You can't get starters of Gray's quality for cheap on the trade market or free agency. There is risk involved with all pitching acquisitions, but the best indicators of future success for Gray play in his favor. Teams will be interested, and the Cardinals should get something really nice in return.

Adams mentioned the Reds as a potential destination, and they've been connected to him already this offseason. He included the Dodgers, Orioles, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers as potential fits, and I would add the Braves to that list as well.

If Gray is open to a trade and opens up that list beyond just Atlanta and Cincinnati who are close to Nashville, then I think the Cardinals' leverage here will be significant. If his options are narrow, then I still believe he is valuable, but it gets a bit more difficult. His value will also be influenced by his willingness to stay in St. Louis and if the club is open to eating money. The perfect spot for his value would be if Gray is open to staying or leaving, has an open mind about destinations, and the Cardinals eat a bit of money.

I agree with Adams that Gray should not have been toward the top of his overall list at this moment, as his availability is still pretty murky. If we knew he was open to being dealt, he should shoot up this list.

Where I disagree with Adams is having Gray below Areando. Gray is the more valuable player right now, hands down, and his contract is not crazy for his value either. We also have no idea how available Arenado is, and his options may be even more limited than Gray's.

Place Gray above Arenado, and move him way higher on the overall list if he is willing to facilitate a trade.

Willson Contreras (#5 Cardinals trade candidate, #12 overall)

The only reason Willson Contreras could be this low on the list would be if there is a lack of willingness on his part to waive his no-trade clause. Otherwise, Contreras should be one of the top trade candidates this offseason in terms of trade value and the number of teams who could be interested.

Even if a team does not like Contreras as a catcher defensively, he has been one of the best hitters in baseball for years now. Since 2022, Contreras has posted a 133 wRC+, 19th among all-hitters in baseball. Over his last 136 games, Contreras has a 157 wRC+, eighth in all of baseball, and fourth among all right-handed bats. He is simply one of the best bats in baseball, and even if a club wants to DH him, he should provide massive value considering he is being paid just $18 million per year.

Contreras did make strides defensively this year, making improvements in his framing and pairing that with solid blocking and a great arm. He remains committed to improving that part of his game.

Teams could also move Contreras to first base or a corner outfield spot to give him defensive value and get his bat in the lineup every day. Honestly, if teams don't value Contreras as highly as I do, I think the Cardinals have to hold onto him, barring him requesting a trade.

But, if Contreras is open to a deal and teams are willing to send proper value for an elite bat, the Cardinals have to listen. He will be 33 years old in May, and while I believe he still has multiple great years ahead of him, the Cardinals are not looking to contend in 2025. That is already one more year of his prime that they are taking away from him in terms of competing, and that's not great for either party.

But if Contreras wants to stay, or especially if clubs are not paying up to the standard they should, then I'm banking on Contreras being a big bat for the Cardinals in 2026.

Adams mentioned the Padres, Blue Jays, Rays, and Guardians as clubs who could target Contreras, but I would add the likes of the Mariners, Tigers, Yankees, Giants, and Astros to that list as well. There are plenty of teams who need offense, and Contreras is probably the best bat available this offseason outside of Juan Soto.

Contreras, in my opinion, should be the third-ranked Cardinal on this list and the fourth-ranked player overall.

Brendan Donovan (#6 Cardinals trade candidate, #20 overall)

The Cardinals are not trading Brendan Donovan.

I get the point Adams was making. Donovan should carry a lot of value on this market and is only under club control for three more seasons. This may be his peak trade value, as clubs would love to add his bat and defensive versatility to their club. But I'm confident the Cardinals value him too much to let him go.

If this was a three or so year rebuild the Cardinals were looking at, Donovan would make more sense as a trade piece, but it sounds like the goal is to compete in 2026 and 2027, and Donovan can be a big part of that. In fact, Donovan should be a part of that in 2028 and beyond as well. The Cardinals would be wise to lock him up on a long-term deal, ensuring his versatility keeps complementing their roster for years to come.

Donovan is a well above-league average hitter who can play six different positions. He may secure his second Gold Glove here soon. I like Thomas Saggese and Nolan Gorman, but there is no need to send Donovan packing to provide playing time for them. There is plenty of playing time to go around.

Donovan has emerged as one of the Cardinals leaders in their clubhouse, and if they are really going to be parting ways with a lot of their veterans, Donovan makes perfect sense to lead this club in 2025 and beyond. He has the wisdom, maturity, and work ethic to be respected by veterans, and he also connects well with young players. Donovan ushered in a new tradition for rookies who made their MLB debut this year, a huge hit in the clubhouse.

This is not a full-scale rebuild in St. Louis. Trading away someone like Donovan would move things in that direction, and I do not see why Mozeliak or Chaim Bloom would sign off on that. He is far more valuable to the Cardinals than he would be on the trade market, and he should be held onto.

I would completely remove Donovan from this list, and more importantly, so would the Cardinals. Sure, he is not "untouchable", but I don't see him as a "trade candidate". It would take a crazy good offer for St. Louis to pivot here.

Nolan Gorman (#7 Cardinals trade candidate, #21 overall)

Like Donovan, I don't think Adams' take here was far-fetched, but I do think some of the context he provided did not actually prove why Nolan Gorman would be a legit trade candidate this offseason.

If some team in baseball viewed Gorman in such a light that the Cardinals could turn him into controllable pitching, I think there could be a conversation there. But with the direction the Cardinals are heading in and his regression last year, there is no reason to sell low here.

Gorman really broke out in 2023, posting a .236/.328/.478 slash line with 27 HR and 76 RBI in just 119 games played. His 118 wRC+ was impressive and would have been much higher if not for an ice-cold month at the plate in June. To this point in Gorman's professional career, he has been prone to those extreme valleys, but he is typically able to get out of that and hit at an elite level.

Except for 2024. Gorman basically had a season-long slump, slashing .203/.271/.400, good for an 87 wRC+. The power was still there for Gorman, but his 37.6 K% was historically bad and cannot continue if he is going to be a force in this league.

I highly doubt anyone is going to trade for Gorman and give up the value of a guy who could give 30+ home runs next year with an .800 OPS or higher. Gorman's ceiling is far too high as a hitter to sell low on, so even though Adams saw him as a change of scenery candidate, I just see very little chance of that.

I'm high on Saggese, but I don't think it makes sense to move Gorman at this moment to free up playing time for him. He also mentioned that Walker could shift back to third base, and there seems to be zero shot of that happening.

The whole point of the youth movement is to create opportunities for guys like Walker, Gorman, Donovan, Winn, Scott II, Burleson, Saggese, Herrera, and all the young pitchers. It's not too crowded to find time for all of their young players, and even if it was, selling low on Gorman now would be unwise.

For the most part, I think the list on MLBTR made a lot of sense, but as you can see, there are a variety of points that I disagreed with. It will be interesting to see how this offseason plays out. While no one can be sure what will happen with this Cardinals roster as of today, we do know there will be a lot of action on the trade market for them.