7 key stats from Cardinals Opening Day that could shape the 2025 season

While Thursday's forecast included gloomy weather as storms rolled through St. Louis, the Cardinals shone bright on Opening Day, beginning the 2025 season with an exciting 5-3 victory over the Minnesota Twins.

It's one game. There is a reason they play 161 more during the regular season. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Overreacting to nine innings of baseball can get you into a lot of trouble, both in terms of positive and negative reactions.

And yet, there were numbers, traditional and advanced metrics as well as statistics outside of the diamond, that could tell the story of how the 2025 season may go for this Cardinal team.

Rather than do a traditional game analysis, I have seven numbers I collected from Opening Day that I found to be very interesting. Some are positive, one is worrisome, but all seven of them are things that may become trends, for better or for worse. These are numbers that cannot be taken as gospel today, but they are the things we should be keeping an eye on in the early months of the season to see if they maintain, improve, or fall off, as each will impact the club's ability to have success in different ways.

Here are 7 numbers from Cardinals' Opening Day that could shape the 2025 season

1.750 - Lars Nootbaar’s OPS to start 2025

Who else is ready to jump on the Lars Nootbaar for MVP hype train?!?

I’m joking, but I have 100% been of the opinion that 2025 will be a big year for Nootbaar, and we may have gotten a taste of that upside today as he settled in as the Cardinals’ leadoff man.

In what is becoming a trend around the game, Nootbaar provides value not by being a speedy spray hitter like what you may have grown up expecting a leadoff man to be. Nootbaar is the modern leadoff hitter who works the count, gets on base at a high level, isn’t afraid to take a walk, and is also a power threat.

With Willson Contreras batting behind him, opposing pitchers really can’t mess around with Nootbaar. Nootbaar's blend of excellent on-base skills and above-average (and potentially well-above-average) power make him a dangerous hitter when he's on, and that's why that OPS is going to be so important to watch as the year goes on.

Since Nootbaar handles both right-handed and left-handed pitchers well, I expect Nootbaar to be the primary leadoff hitter throughout the 2025 season as long as he is producing or not needed in the middle of their order. Not only will Nootbaar have great protection behind him with Contreras, Brendan Donovan, and Nolan Arenado, but he also will have the opportunity to produce runs whenever Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, or Masyn Winn gets on in front of him.

I really like how the Cardinals have structured their lineup, but this construction does require Nootbaar to perform to his capabilities. I believe this is the year we'll see him put it all together, and he got off to a fantastic start on Thursday with a 109.8 MPH single to lead off the game and a two-run bomb to right field in his second at-bat of the game. Nootbaar saw 20 pitches on Thursday as well, showing that he can keep working counts and strike the ball when the opportunity presents itself.