6 low-risk, high-reward starting pitching targets for the Cardinals this offseason

Walker Buehler

It has been a tough few years for Walker Buehler, as injuries have robbed the now 30-year-old right-hander of what looked to be a promising career ahead of him.

With the Dodgers already having way too many injury-prone arms on their roster, Buehler is likely going to have to find a new home this offseason in free agency. ESPN's Jeff Passan has already compared him to Jack Flaherty last offseason, looking for a one-year "pillow" deal to rebuild his value.

Rather than bringing back a Gibson or Lynn this offseason, Buehler is the exact kind of arm they should be targeting on a one-year, maybe even two-year deal if he is open to coming to St. Louis.

How the rest of this postseason plays out for Buehler will likely have some impact on his market, but I can't imagine him getting a long-term deal no matter how things go. He did just have a nice start in the NLCS against the Mets, getting 18 whiffs while striking out six batters in four shutout innings.

Some kind of one-year deal in the $14m-$16m range feels right for Buehler, maybe a hair more if there is a lot of interest in him. He looked great in that last start but only went four innings in the Wild Card Series as well while giving up two runs. In the regular season, Buehler made just 16 starts this year with a 5.38 ERA. He really has not done enough to earn more than a prove-it deal.

In Buehler's underlying numbers, you like to see that his fastball velocity is still in the mid-90s and he is preventing hard contact while keeping the ball on the ground. His strikeout stuff has really fallen off, but as we saw against the Mets, if he misses bats he is really hard to hit against.

St. Louis would honestly be a great situation for Buehler to land in. Locked into a rotation spot, low-pressure situation in a "reset" year, pitcher's ballpark, and there has been encouraging work from Dusty Blake with the Cardinals arms the last two years that indicate they can help a starter like Buehler rebound well. Plus, we know Bloom is going to be continuing to revamp their pitching development, and we've seen how an organization like the Rays can "fix" pitchers.

Bring him to St. Louis and see what happens. If all goes well, you try and keep him around long-term or flip him at the deadline. If it does not, well, you just lost money in a year where you didn't necessarily "need" it to win games. Buehler is the perfect target for St. Louis.