6 Cardinals spring training performances to buy into, 4 more to forget

Opening Day is right around the corner, and the St. Louis Cardinals are inching closer to determining their 26-man roster when the team leaves Jupiter. With every spring training comes plenty of pitchers and hitters who stand out but may not take that performance, good or bad, with them into the regular season.

In this breakdown of "spring training stats don't matter," I'm looking at players who could be mainstays on the Cardinals roster for the majority of the season and see how their trading card stats may or may not tell the whole story. It is easy to get excited about good numbers and disappointed by poor stats, so here are a few that we can expect to see in St. Louis but others we can leave in Florida when the team heads north.

Performances to buy: Contreras, Nootbaar, Herrera, Fernandez, Liberatore, McGreevy

The Cardinals' offense has continued to struggle as a team, which is a concerning trend from years past, but some of their big names have picked up the slack in ways that should continue when the games start to count. First baseman Willson Contreras has bulked up as he plans to shoulder much of the offensive production that was severely lacking from the middle of the order last season. The 32-year-old has packed on the muscle, and he has built off his solid, yet shortened 2024 season. In 30 at-bats, Contreras is hitting .367 with a .990 OPS, adding a homer and two doubles while flashing solid defense at first. Why can he bring this same performance to St. Louis? Well, the move to first base should keep him fully healthy. Contreras only played in 84 games last season after suffering a fractured forearm but still put up great counting stats. In that half-season, he had an .848 OPS with 15 homers and plenty of red (good) on his Baseball Savant scorecard. Contreras should have no problem leading the offense again in 2025.

The Lars Nootbaar offseason excitement continues into 2025, as he looks ready to take on a full-time role in the outfield. Speaking of red on Baseball Savant, holy cow, there's a lot of it for Nootbaar. The dude can flat-out hit and has an elite knowledge of the strike zone. His issue has always been staying on the field, but, in his defense, his injuries have been less about small wear-and-tear injuries and more freak accidents. While working between all three outfield spots, Noot has a .936 OPS with 10 walks in 31 spring at-bats. Of his nine hits, three have gone for extra bases, and he has also added a stolen base. A healthy season from Noot should see at least 20 homers and, if he stays in the middle of the order, plenty of RBI opportunities

Ivan Herrera has shown plenty this spring to be the catcher who receives most of the playing time in the regular season. After an awkward season where he and Pedro Pages split catching duties after the Contreras injury, Herrera spent his offseason working to improve his throwing, and it appears to have paid off so far. Although Herrera has always been the stronger bat, pitchers have seemed to favor Pages because of his defensive ability, but Herrera may have lessened that gap so far in 2025. Herrera's bat continues to play in Jupiter, with a 1.205 OPS thanks to four doubles, a triple, and a homer in 26 at-bats. Encouragingly, Herrera has more walks (seven) than strikeouts (six). He has shown the ability to hit; now he just needs the consistent playing time.

On the pitching side, I am enamored by the lefty/righty combination of Ryan Fernandez and Matthew Liberatore out of the bullpen. I wrote earlier in the offseason how Fernandez is an easy choice to fill the Kittredge void and may even be better suited for it. He has continued his surprise success from last year into this spring, with nine strikeouts in eight innings and only three runs allowed. Fernandez has continued to limit baserunners, allowing only four hits and two walks. He could easily form a tandem with JoJo Romero or Liberatore to put out any late-game fires.

In Liberatore's case, he has been the constant subject of starter or reliever discussions, again getting the opportunity to stretch himself out this offseason. He responded in incredible fashion, retiring 21 of the first 22 batters he faced while touching 97 mph on the radar gun with his fastball. Encouragingly, he has only allowed two walks in 11.2 innings, and with a consistent role in the bullpen, Libby could become a go-to guy to work out of a jam.

Finally comes Michael McGreevy, one of the hottest pitching topics throughout the entire camp. McGreevy debuted in St. Louis last year after a middle-of-the-road minor league track record but opened some eyes in his 24 big league innings. Entering into a true competition for a starting spot, McGreevy knew he had some bigger names (and contracts) penciled in in front of him. As one of the most MLB-ready arms in the organization, he has continued to simply pitch and attack the strike zone. McGreevy has not allowed a walk over his 11.2 innings and, while he does not strike out a lot of hitters, has shown the ability to compete against the game's top hitters.