Last year's surprise reliever is the Cardinals' best option for the setup role in 2025

A lack of the expected massive turnover for the St. Louis Cardinals roster during the offseason means that the team looks likely to open spring training without a lot of competition at many positions. The usual spots remain open, like bullpen fillers or bench players, but arguably the biggest loss came from the departure of setup man Andrew Kittredge, who signed with the Baltimore Orioles after a great bounce-back campaign last season.

Kittredge, who was acquired from the Rays for Richie Palacios, was coming off of back-to-back injury-plagued seasons but had put together a strong track record. In 2024, the righty looked to prove he was back to full health, and he delivered on that promise, as he set a career-high in appearances (74) and holds (37), quickly becoming manager Oliver Marmol's go-to arm late in games. The overall results were solid, but Kittredge was also charged with seven blown saves and five losses to go along with elevated hard-hit and barrel percentages. No matter how the results are viewed, his workhorse ability will be missed this season, and the team will need to pull from their list of current arms to fill that void.

Ryan Fernandez should get the first shot at the setup role

Enter Ryan Fernandez, last year's Rule 5 selection that the Cardinals swiped away from the Boston Red Sox. The stipulation with taking a player during that draft is that the player must stay on the Major League roster (or injured list) for the entirety of the season, or they will be offered back to their original team. Because of this, teams typically look for a low-leverage, high-potential arm in the hopes they can fill in the middle innings of games at a very affordable cost and could potentially turn into a quality pitcher, which is what the Cardinals hoped for Fernandez.

Despite comments from management that having to keep the former 23rd-round pick on the roster made transactions difficult at certain points, Fernandez gave the Cardinals plenty of value and then some heading into his second big league season. Looking at the 26-year-old's minor league track record, it was easy to see why the team decided to give him a spot on the big league roster last season. Through his five minor league seasons, the hard-throwing righty only once posted a K/9 less than 10.0 and has never been below a 22% strikeout rate. He has also shown quality command of the strike zone, as he went into last season never having less than a 3.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio along with a walk rate that never fell below 7.8%.

Fernandez had a mediocre Spring Training in 2024, but the team opted to keep him on the roster rather than offer him back to the Red Sox. The Cardinals immediately slotted him into a late-inning role, albeit mostly low-stress games. (The team lost eight of his first nine appearances in April.) Even with the Cardinals' disappointing results, Fernandez put up a 2.92 ERA and struck out 17 hitters in his first 12.1 major league innings. Those quality numbers were enough for the team to start throwing him into the fire more consistently, as he picked up his first major league hold in a May 14 win against the Angels and then notched his first career save a week later against the Orioles.

The overall numbers were solid heading into June, which is when Fernandez truly took off. Over 13 appearances in June, the righty threw 15 innings and allowed only one run for a 0.60 ERA, but did see his strikeouts drop to only 13 over that stretch. Heading into the All-Star break, the 26-year-old had a great 2.08 ERA over 43.1 innings, tallying 43 strikeouts and a 1.15 WHIP. Fatigue may have started to hit the rookie in August, when he walked eight batters against five strikeouts in just seven innings, which led to seven earned runs and a tough 9.00 ERA.

After the dog days of the season, Fernandez righted the ship slightly in September with the team mostly out of the race. For the month, he threw 10.2 innings and struck out 18 batters against only five walks, but did allow 13 hits. All told, the Rule 5 pick ended 2024 with 71 strikeouts in 66.2 innings with two saves, good enough for 1.0 bWAR and a 120 ERA+.

What makes Ryan Fernandez a fit for the Andrew Kittredge's old role?

Of his 62 appearances, 36 of them were in the seventh inning or earlier, with the majority of those games coming in the first half of the year or August when the Cardinals were trying to see what they had in the righty. Those earlier game appearances were actually a detriment to Fernandez's overall season, as he put up a 3.63 ERA in innings five through seven and a 2.70 ERA in the eighth and ninth innings. He also unlocked greater strikeout rates in the final two innings of the game but did see an increase in his walks. After never having a walk rate above 8%, Fernandez had an 11.2% rate in his debut season but kept his strikeout rate consistent at 25%.

In comparison to Kittredge, Fernandez had a better strikeout percentage, whiff rate, expected batting average, and hard-hit rate, which, by Baseball Savant's measures, were all above league average, while Kittredge was below in each of those categories. Fernandez's major concern, however, would be his walk rate, with him slotting in at the 13th percentile across the league. Despite the command issues, Fernandez was an overall comparable player to Kittredge and is six years younger. If Fernandez can get back to his minor-league control of the strike zone, then the Cardinals may not feel the loss of Kittredge as much as expected.

Besides some middle-inning or long-relief spots, the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen appears to be set personnel-wise. While they will use the exhibition season to distribute more defined roles, Ryan Fernandez should be the first arm with JoJo Romero to set up closer Ryan Helsley.