5 bold predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

Bold prediction #3: Nolan Arenado will once again receive MVP votes (but he won't finish the season a Cardinal).

I bundled two bold predictions into one because they both deal with the same player. While the second half of this prediction may not be overly dramatic — it's been rumored for months that Nolan Arenado would be traded — the first half is bold indeed.

It's been two seasons since Nolan Arenado received National League Most Valuable Player votes. He finished third behind teammate Paul Goldschmidt and San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado that year, and there was an argument that he should have won the award. Since then, Arenado has fallen victim to Father Time.

Arenado has posted back-to-back underwhelming offensive seasons with a 108 OPS+ and a 99 OPS+ in 2023 and 2024, respectively. He also failed to reach 20 home runs last year for the first time since 2014. Arenado's offense has plummeted over the last two years.

His defense has also taken a hit. He was worth 14 Outs Above Average (OAA) and he accumulated 19 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2022. Those numbers have fallen to five OAA and one DRS in 2023 and nine OAA and six DRS in 2024. The combination of lackluster offense and less-than-expected defensive output has added to Arenado's precipitous decline since 2022, perhaps the best year of his career.

I expect a turnaround for Arenado in 2025. He won't reach the heights he reached in 2022, but he will have a good enough return to see some down-ballot MVP votes this year. I'm not expecting him to finish in the top ten, let alone the top five, but I'm predicting Arenado to see some votes in 2025.

I also expect Arenado to be traded at some point this year. Be it to the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, or Los Angeles Dodgers, Arenado will probably be wearing a different uniform by the end of the year. Hopefully, his return to offensive and defensive prowess will boost his trade value and net the Cardinals a decent return of prospects or MLB-ready talent. A trade of Arenado will also open playing time for young players like Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, and Thomas Saggese.