3 Cardinals who could be off the major-league roster before May 1

RHP Matt Svanson

Matt Svanson had an excellent breakout year in 2025. The rookie reliever finished the season with a superb 1.94 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 60.1 innings. He recorded five holds, and he became a very reliable late-inning and high-leverage man for manager Oli Marmol. Svanson's 96.8 MPH fastball ranked in the 86th percentile in velocity, his K rate was in the 88th percentile, and his .201 expected batting average against was in the 91st percentile. All of the metrics led fans, coaches, and pundits to believe that Svanson could repeat his 2025 success, me included.

Boy were we all wrong.

A lot can change between seasons, and that statement rings truer for no one else more than relief pitchers.

Through 14.2 innings this year, Svanson sports a 10.43 ERA. His K rate has plummeted to just 17.3%, and his walk rate has nearly doubled to 16%. His 1.3% K-BB% is the tenth worst among relievers who have thrown 10 or more innings. Svanson has already matched his home run total (3) from last year, and he's surpassed his earned run total (13 in 2025, 17 in 2026).

The why for Matt Svanson's regression is important. He's seen decreases in average velocity for all three of his pitches by about half a mile per hour. He's also allowing batters to pull the ball in the air more often, the most dangerous type of batted balls for any pitcher. Perhaps the most obvious sign of struggle for Svanson is in the movement of his sinker, his most used pitch.

Generally speaking, pitchers don't want a lot of vertical movement with their sinkers. Low vertical movement paired with arm-side run generates ground balls, weak contact, and outs. Svanson's sinker had 9.6 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) last year, and that figure is now just 8.0 inches of IVB. Batters are teeing off on his sinker this year, hitting .361 against it with a .445 wOBA.

Matt Svanson's path back to dominance is clear: he needs to get his sinker in a good place. His entire repertoire is based off this one pitch, and its ineffectiveness is what's punishing him this year. Some time in Memphis to reset the pitch may be beneficial. In exchange, the Cardinals could shuttle any one of Chris Roycroft, Cade Winquest, or Scott Blewett up to St. Louis.

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