Writers' predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals 2026 season

Writer Predictions: Thomas Gauvain (@thomasgauvain)

Team MVP: Masyn Winn

I expect Masyn Winn to take a huge step forward this year. I think he’ll maintain his plus-plus defense and be an above-average hitter, somewhere in the 110-115 wRC+ range. He’s been talking about wanting to steal more bases lately, and a fully healthy knee should help him get the job done. Finding a home in the top half of the lineup should also bode well for his offensive numbers.

Breakout Hitter: Nathan Church

Nathan Church made the cut on the 26-men who would be on the major-league roster on Opening Day, and he could even be the club’s primary left fielder until Lars Nootbaar returns.

Church, 25, will see plenty of time this year in the majors. He finished spring training with a 136 wRC+, a home run, and three stolen bases in 16 games. He’s an exceptional defender, and he had his best offensive season in the minors last year with a 144 wRC+ spread across time in both Double-A and Triple-A. He struggled in a very limited time in the majors last year, but he seems to be ready to take it to the next level in 2026. I’m not expecting him to blow our socks off, but I do think Church will establish himself as a solid outfielder this year.

Breakout Pitcher: Matt Svanson

Matt Svanson is one of the true relievers whom the Cardinals have developed. Since 2023, the right-handed reliever has played in 148 games as a reliever, and he’s never posted an ERA greater than 3.32 at any of his stops, including the majors. He made his debut last year in St. Louis, and he finished the year with a 1.94 ERA across 60.1 innings. He became one of Oli Marmol’s most reliable back-end relievers by the end of the year, garnering five holds. Svanson probably won’t be the de facto closer in 2026, but he’ll be a closer in a committee of relievers that will also include JoJo Romero and Riley O’Brien. Svanson is my pick to be a breakout pitcher for the Cardinals and throughout baseball.

Bold Prediction: Matthew Liberatore becomes a top-10 left-handed pitcher in baseball

The list of superb southpaws is lengthy: Tarik Skubal, Christopher Sanchez, Garrett Crochet, Jesus Luzardo, Max Fried, and Ranger Suarez, to name a few. Last year, Liberatore finished 18th in fWAR among left-handed starters who threw at least 150 innings. I predict he’ll take a huge step forward and join the conversation as a top-10 left-handed starter in baseball.

2026 Team Summary:

I suspect the Cardinals will win 72 games next year, miss the playoffs once again, and finish last in the National League Central. However, I believe many questions will be answered next year, especially which players are cornerstones (Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt, Matthew Liberatore). The win total may not excite fans, but the individual player performances and the outlook for the future will give the Cardinal faithful reprieve.