Cardinals: These are the ways St. Louis can free up more payroll

1 of 2

John Mozeliak has multiple routes to free up payroll this offseason

According to recent payroll projections, the St. Louis Cardinals are projected to have about $165 million in committed salary via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. With a projected budget of $180-$185 million for Opening Day this year, that leaves St. Louis with about $15-$20 million to spend this offseason.

How does that make sense if others in the industry see a real shot for the Cardinals to make a splash this offseason? Katie Woo predicted the Cardinals would make a blockbuster signing, industry insiders are linking them to Willson Contreras, and MLB Network’s Greg Amsigner is all-in on Trea Turner to the Cardinals. How do they do this with so little budget? Well St. Louis has multiple ways they can, and likely will, free up payroll this offseason in order to make those impact moves.

Here are the ways they can, and then the ways they probably will, free up salary through non-tenders and trades this offseason.

Arbitration-eligible players who can be non-tendered or traded

If you follow our Cardinals’ offseason tracker, we are keeping you up to date on all Cardinals transactions, rumors, as well as projected arbitration salaries via MLBTradeRumors.com.

Projected arbitration numbers for #STLCards according to @mlbtraderumors pic.twitter.com/EigaxnHAWi
— Joshua Jacobs (@joshjacoMLB) October 13, 2022

Right off the bat, three names stick out as likely candidates to be non-tendered or traded this offseason. Relievers Alex Reyes and Chris Stratton will likely be non-tendered in the coming days, as both right-handers likely will not factor into the club’s roster in 2023. Reyes, the Cardinals former top prospect, has dealt with a variety of injuries and cannot be relied upon at that salary. Stratton was a fine addition at the deadline, but his $3.5 million salary makes him an unattractive option on the roster.

Dakota Hudson could be a trade or non-tender candidate. After impressing early in his career and bouncing back from injuries in 2022, the 27-year old did not produce like the Cardinals had hoped for, posting a 4.45 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while being demoted to Triple-A Memphis and losing his spot in the rotation. The Cardinals already have five projected starters ahead of him, multiple cheap swing-man options, and may even add another starter. Hudson will likely be gone.

Those three moves alone free up $9.05 million in salary, raising the Cardinals available budget up to between $24.05-$29.05 million to spend. That alone already makes bigger moves a much more realistic option for the club.

There are other moves that could happen from this list as well. Genesis Cabrera ($1.2 million) is another non-tender or trade candidate. Tyler O’Neill ($5.1 million) has found his name in trade rumors after a disappointing 2022 season. Jordan Montgomery ($10.1 million) could be flipped with one year remaining on his contract to make room for an arm on a multi-year deal. These three moves combined with the likely ones could give the Cardinals up to $45 million in salary flexibility.

Let’s look at some guaranteed contracts that St. Louis could part with, and then come up with a likely number that they will free up in the coming weeks or months.

PITTSBURGH, PA – OCTOBER 03: Steven Matz #32 of the St. Louis Cardinals in action during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on October 3, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) /

Guaranteed contracts the Cardinals could trade

Outside of the Cardinals non-tender candidates, there are some guaranteed contracts on their books that they could look to trade if the opportunity presented itself this winter.

The one everyone would point to is Paul DeJong, and although the Cardinals would love to get rid of his $9 million contract for 2023, it seems unlikely that anyone would take on his contract without prospect compensation attached to him. John Mozeliak indicated the club plans on DeJong getting one last shot in Spring Training this year, but that could be posturing for a potential deal.

One scenario where this could happen is in a trade for a new catcher or other area of need on the team. The club could up the level of prospects they are offering to a team like Oakland or Toronto if they are willing to take on all of, or part of DeJong’s contract.

Another interesting option is left-hander Steven Matz, who makes $10.5 million this coming season and has 3 years, $35.5 million left on his contract. Matz did not have the debut season St. Louis was hoping from him, as he battled injuries and posted a 5.25 ERA in just 48 innings for the club. If you look at the game logs though, outside of two really bad starts, he was really good for St. Louis when healthy. Scratching those two starts from his slate, he posted a 3.22 ERA across 7 starts.

Matz is still an attractive option for both St. Louis and other clubs looking for a dependable, middle-of-the-rotation arm. It’s unlikely that the Cardinals deal Matz, but if they do look to add a front-line starter, they could part with him to make room.

Drew VerHagen likely carries no value on the market, and although Miles Mikolas could be a name to watch in a contract year, it seems more likely they’d hold onto him.

So how much will the Cardinals have to spend?

With all that being said, the Cardinals could have up to $60 million in payroll flexibility if they deal or non-tender any of the names mentioned earlier. Unless they go ultra-aggressive with their moves, this seems unlikely.

If I had to guess how much money the Cardinals would free up on top of their let’s say $20 million available to spend, I would put the number at an additional $17 million through the non-tenders and trades of Hudson, Reyes, Stratton, Cabrera, pre-arbitration players on the roster, and getting a team to eat about half of DeJong’s deal in the kind of trade mentioned earlier. If they do so, that will put the Cardinals at $37 million to spend this offseason, which could actually go a long way.

Say the Cardinals add a significant upgrade at catcher via trade (Sean Murphy, Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen), that would still leave them with about $35 million to spend toward any other needs they have. That payroll flexibility could be used to sign significant free agents or take on contracts through trades. The options are plentiful.

So before you go and call this offseason a wash, wait and see what the Cardinals choose to do with their fringe players making a pretty penny. It may be a pipe dream to believe the club would go above their projected $185 million budget, but the club is not against being creative with its resources within that constraint.

Home / St Louis Cardinals News