St Louis Cardinals: Ryan Helsley needs a AAA reset

Ryan Helsley has the potential to be a key bullpen arm for the St Louis Cardinals but right now, the righty needs a mental reset.

After starting the year expecting the St Louis Cardinals’ bullpen to be among the league’s most elite, the group has quickly fallen from grace in the second month of the season.

The two biggest reasons why the bullpen has faltered are clear: walks and injuries. On the first front, walks have been an issue for the entire team, not just the bullpen. Players who have never had walk issues all of the sudden are struggling to throw strikes. Whether it is something between the ears or something pitching coach Mike Maddux is teaching, it’s a big problem.

The second front, injuries, is something that will hopefully work itself out by the end of the year when games matter most. Injuries to both Jordan Hicks and Andrew Miller have robbed manager Mike Shildt of two of his top options, forcing him to put more unproven relievers into bigger roles.

While this is a chance for a young arm (or three) to step up, that hasn’t happened.

For 26-year-old Ryan Helsley, taking on a bigger role has gone very poorly.

Way back in 2019, Helsley’s MLB debut made him seem like he’d be a force in the St Louis Cardinals’ bullpen or rotation for years. With a fastball that can hit 100 mph and averages 97.3 mph, a cutter, curveball, and changeup, Helsley mowed down batters in the regular season and then had a scoreless 5.1 innings in the 2019 postseason.

A rough 2020 has spilled over to this year though. Through 21.1 innings, he’s already allowed four more runs (16) than he did over 36.2 innings in 2019, boosting his ERA up to 6.75. His 3.69 FIP suggests he’s been better than his ERA would communicate. Like many others in the bullpen, Helsley’s problems have stemmed from walks. 15 in 21.1 innings is much too many, but there are encouraging signs.

He’s only allowed one homer on the year, and he’s struck out 23. In those areas, his per-nine’s are improvements over 2019, he’s just putting too many runners on base for free. With four pitches out of the bullpen, Helsley could easily be a weapon, it just hasn’t been the case.

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Looking past his base numbers, Helsley’s peripherals all show improvement over his best season, 2019. His CSW% (called + swinging strikes percentage) has improved, his spin rates and velocity have all remained the same. In 2020, he dropped his fastball usage below 50%, but that has gone back up to where it was in 2019.

On a per-pitch basis, Helsley is getting just as many whiffs on his fastball as he did in 2019 and has gotten more whiffs on his cutter than he did then. He’s not getting as many swings and misses on the curveball and changeup, but those only combine for just over 12% of all his pitches.

Looking at BABIP, sitting around the .350 mark means he’s been slightly unlucky when looking just at that, but the three or four hits that have raised his BABIP could’ve been important ones.

At the end of the day, it’s a little surprising that Helsley has been so bad. However, the fact remains that he has gone through an abhorrent stretch recently. In his last seven outings, he has allowed at least one run in five appearances and two runs or more in four. To find Helsley’s last stretch of full clean innings, you have to look all the way back to the first week of May.

Rather than continuing to throw Helsley off the deep end, sending him to AAA for 10 days might be the perfect recipe to get him a reset. He has two more option years, so sending him down is a no-risk situation, especially if the front office lays it out as a mental trip. No matter who replaces Helsley in the Cardinals’ bullpen, missing the fireballer for 10 days could be worth it in the long run if he comes back with a vengeance.

It’s not too hard to argue when looking at some peripherals from 2019 that Helsley was a little lucky that year, but the player he can be is not as bad as the one that has been on the mound lately.

Like a lot of other arms in the Cardinals bullpen, Helsley has a ton of arm talent. If he can throw strikes consistently, he’s could be lethal at the back end of the bullpen or even as a starter down the line.