St. Louis Cardinals: A rough start on the mound for Andrew Miller

Numbers from the first month of the season usually have to be taken with a grain of salt. It is easy to overreact to small sample sizes – I’m guilty of it – but the picture can usually be painted a couple months into the season when the sample sizes are much greater.

But is it time to sound the alarms on Andrew Miller?

Miller, 35, has struggled through his first four appearances to start the season. He has a 7.36 ERA and a 5/2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 3.2 innings. But most concerning is that his average fastball is currently 87.8 mph, according to Baseball Savant, with it averaging 95 mph in 2016.

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There have been no reports that Miller is injured, but his fastball velocity has steadily declined in each of the last few seasons. But his current velocity is alarming, as SB Nation noted, as it puts an increased pressure on him to have pinpoint accuracy on the mound. If he is anything less than that, the start of the regular season has illustrated that he can and will get hit hard.

The Cardinals have not sounded the alarm on Miller and likely won’t for some time if his struggles continue. Again, remember what was said about small sample sizes. But the Cardinals are fortunate to be in a position where they can rely on Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks in high-leverage situations over Miller.

But Miller was supposed to be their clear No. 3 option who had big game experience. If his struggles continue, the Cardinals may be forced to change that alignment. For now, the sample size remains too small for the team to do anything about it. But they will certainly keep their eye on it.