St. Louis Cardinals Trade Debate: Righty Daniel Ponce de Leon

The St. Louis Cardinals should be active in the trade market this winter. Ahead of then, is Daniel Ponce de Leon a good trade candidate?

Other than the outfield, one of the position groups for the St. Louis Cardinals that is going to be wildly interesting coming into 2021 is their starting rotation. Much like the situation before 2020, there are a lot of question marks around a lot of talented players that will all likely make their mark at some point.

Jack Flaherty is an unquestioned number one, but even he had a down 2020. Miles Mikolas is coming off a lost season, Kwang Hyun Kim is due for regression, Adam Wainwright may retire, Carlos Martinez had a lost season, and Dakota Hudson is out for the entirety of 2021.

Behind this group is the core of Daniel Ponce de Leon, Austin Gomber, Johan Oviedo, Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, Alex Reyes, and more. All of these guys have the potential to compete for starting roles, but there is also the chance they could move on from some of the names in this group.

Today, I want to center the debate around Daniel Ponce de Leon.

Last winter, I thought Ponce was a clear candidate to be traded. After being used in spot starts at times during the 2019 season, Ponce rode the Memphis shuttle often and didn’t stick with any role. As we have seen with other players, Mike Shildt plays the players he sees as part of the long-term plan. When Ponce was up and down so much, I figured that was a clear sign he was out.

However, the offseason passed and Ponce was still here. Ponce didn’t sit quietly and twiddle his thumbs all winter though.

In possibly the best move he could’ve done to improve his talents, Ponce spent his own money to take a trip out west to spend some time with Driveline Baseball, a company renowned for its ability to use advanced methods to increase spin and spin efficiency for pitchers. While I would argue that the Cardinals should provide their own pitchers these resources, the results can’t go unnoticed for Ponce.

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Digging into the specifics of the changes is a topic for another article, but Ponce ranked above average in fastball spin and curve spin rates while making gains in efficiency for both. With these throttled up pitches, Ponce set a career-high with 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

The problem is, command was still a problem in 2020. On the year, he also set a new high in walks per nine at 5.5. These extra men on the basepaths raised Ponce’s ERA to 4.96, his FIP to 5.64, and his WHIP to 1.316. It was a small sample size of just 32.2 innings, but it was not a great year for Ponce in the stat sheet.

However, he is going to be 29 in 2021 and the changes he made to his pitch repertoire is a good sign when you are looking towards the future. Of the players the Cardinals could trade, Ponce is one with a fair amount of value. Much like Tyler O’Neill, he is a player who could be primed for a career year.

If I am the Cardinals, I am going to try and shop Ponce, but there is no pressure to trade him. Whether he can contribute in the rotation or out of the bullpen, he is still a valuable pitcher to have around.

Ponce is entering his final year of team control before arbitration, so things may change for him in or after 2021.

For now, unless a team is dying to get their hands on Ponce in a deal where the Cardinals are upgrading a position offensively, there’s not much motivation for the team to move him.