St. Louis Cardinals Series Preview: Rolling over the Royals

After winning the series with the Cincinnati Reds, the St. Louis Cardinals take on their Missouri rivals in the second series of their 12 game homestand.

After coming away from Chicago with four wins in eight games, the St. Louis Cardinals followed this up with three wins against the Reds. Since their return from COVID, the Redbirds are now 7-5 and sit second in the National League Central at 9-8.

After four days without a doubleheader, the Cardinals rotation is beginning to look a little more settled. During the four-game series with the Reds, the Cardinals’ starters went 22.1 innings and allowed just 13 hits, with a 1.61 ERA.

In this three-game series versus the Royals, we will be seeing Jack Flaherty starting against Brad Keller, Adam Wainwright in game two versus Matt Harvey, and finally, it’ll likely be Dakota Hudson closing out the series. This finale could well be a bullpen game though, prior to a doubleheader with the Pittsburgh Pirates, so we could see the return of Carlos Martinez to the mound.

The St. Louis Cardinals have done well against the Royals historically, having a franchise 58.6% winning percentage. The Redbirds have only had losing years against the Royals in eight of the 24 years that they’ve played. 2019 was one of those winning years, where the Cards went 3-1 against the Royals, having a +9 run differential including wins for Flaherty and Waino.

ST LOUIS, MO – JULY 22: Yadier Molina #4 of the St. Louis Cardinals is hit by a pitch against the Kansas City Royals third inning at Busch Stadium on July 22, 2020 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

The Cards actually faced the Royals in a summer camp game on July 22 which they won 6-3. Paul DeJong hit a three-run homer plus there were extra-base hits for Max Schrock (3B), Tyler O’Neill (2B), and Matt Carpenter (2B). The team did well from a pitching perspective also, with Carlos Martinez allowing just one earned run and two hits in four innings pitched and KK Kim closing out the game with a three strikeout ninth.

After four days with no doubleheaders, the rotation is settling down.

Game one – 7:15 PM, Monday

Jack Flaherty will be making his third start of the 2020 season on Monday. Following the COVID-19 delay, JFlare went 1.2 innings allowing a solo home run and striking out three batters against the Cubs. He has faced the Royals on two occasions previously, pitching seven innings in both games and allowing just six hits. Flaherty has a 1.29 career ERA versus the Royals and his 10.3 K/9 record is standout in these performances.

Of all pitchers in the majors with at least 24 batted ball attempts, per Baseball Savant, Jack Flaherty still sits in the top four for hard-hit percentage allowed (12.5%) and top three for average exit velocity allowed (82 mph). Flahertys’ opponent, Brad Keller, on the other hand, is not in the top 100 for average exit velocity allowed (87.1 mph), nor in the top third of all MLB pitchers for hard-hit percentage (33.3%).

Keller has faced the Cards four times previously, twice in relief and twice as a starter. In his two starts, Keller has not allowed an extra-base hit but struggled with command allowing a 4.8 BB/9 which is over a walk higher than his career average (3.6). It will no doubt be a challenge getting bat on the ball against Keller, so we could see a pitching duel on Monday.

ST LOUIS, MO – JULY 22: Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals stands in the dugout prior to playing in a MLB exhibition game against the Kansas City Royals at Busch Stadium on July 22, 2020 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

Game two – 7:15 PM, Tuesday

Adam Wainwright makes his fourth start of the season on Tuesday when he takes on Matt Harvey. This will be his tenth career start against the Royals, in which he has a .290 wOBA and a 3.36 FIP. Waino though will be looking to reduce that career wOBA versus the Royals more in line with his 2020 numbers. He currently sits at sixth of all major league starters per wOBA, with his .209 wOBA in fact being the third-best in the NL.

Waino takes on Matt Harvey, who was called up the majors a week ago by the Royals. In his first game of the year, Harvey gave up two home runs and three earned runs in three against the Reds. Harvey last played the Cardinals as a Reds pitcher in 2018 where he made two starts, holding a 6.52 FIP across those two games. Harvey gave up three homers in one of those games which gave him a 25% HR per fly ball percentage which would currently sit as the second-worst of all qualified hitters in the NL.

Game three – 7:15 PM, Wednesday

Although the starters are yet to be announced, we are expecting to see Dakota Hudson make the start in this final game against the Royals. With the game taking place the day before a doubleheader, there is room for movement on this one with Carlos Martinez’s potential return from the COVID-IL allowing the Redbirds to be flexible in this finale.

Of the 35 regular-season series between the Cardinals and Royals that they’ve played in franchise history (dating back to 1997), the St. Louis Cardinals have won the series finale on 21 occasions. This shows up well for the Cards and so it’s a positive sign for Hudson or whoever else will be taking the mound in this finale.

The offense has been slow since the Cards restart, but we saw signs of life in the final games against the Reds!

Paul Goldschmidt has been an OBP machine so far in 2020. He has the most hits of any Cardinal player and currently leads the league in OBP by a substantial margin. His .485 OBP is nearly .030 higher than his nearest rival (Kyle Lewis of the Mariners with .456). Although Goldy is on for a career year in OBP, he has struggled to get any runs batted in with only five RBI on the year.

In his last time out against the Royals, Goldy struggled in 2019 with just two hits in 16 at-bats and a -44 wRC+. So if the OBP-king Goldy comes to play, we could see a good number of men on base in this series – the question comes whether he can be hit in!

ST LOUIS, MO – AUGUST 23: Dylan Carlson #3 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits his first MLB career home run, driving in two runs against the Cincinnati Reds in the seventh inning at Busch Stadium on August 23, 2020 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

Dylan Carlson got his first major league home run and first major league RBI of his career in the final game against the Reds! Although Carlson has been struggling for production, all the numbers point to the fact that he’s been very unlucky so far. His wOBA (.141) is a league-leading .166 below his xwOBA (.307) which shows he has been hitting the ball well with hard contact. Now he has RBI on the board, lets hope that ignites the flames and starts a Carlson run!