Does it make sense for the St. Louis Cardinals to tank in 2020?

With several key players coming off the books in upcoming seasons for the St. Louis Cardinals, does it make sense for the Cardinals to tank in 2020?

The St. Louis Cardinals are nearing a bit of a crossroads. Many of their core players are nearing the end of their contracts after 2020 or 2021. Franchise icons Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina are in that group, and one of both of these players retiring or testing free agency would represent a huge tectonic shift for the organization.

With a large part of the roster, notably many of the team’s highest-paid players, set to potentially depart in the relatively short term, it’s interesting to think about how the team might look like in a few years.

The way I see it, there are two real options for building a championship-caliber team. The first option is the Yankees/Dodgers option which is to spend, spend, spend. Investing in high dollar free-agent deals and making trades for star players. We see the “big market” teams use this strategy to perfection.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. How many championships have those teams won lately?

Fair point. As we’ve seen in the past, the playoffs are largely dictated by circumstance and randomized events. There is no guarantee that the highest payroll will win. However, looking at the success of the Yankees and Dodgers in recent seasons, it seems they may be onto something. It’s also likely that both of those teams could make a rightful claim to a World Series trophy that eluded them by the Houston Astros and their now infamous cheating scandal.

Still, a World Series or championship series appearance is a great accomplishment, and having the best players stacks the deck in your favor. Now comes option number two…

Tanking.

There, I said it. It’s kind of controversial to even suggest it beyond a hushed tone. It’s a gamble and likely an even bigger one than throwing around gobs of money in free agency. The idea of essentially “punting” on numerous seasons to secure high draft picks is not one many teams want to do or put their fanbase through. However, there have been some success stories.

The Astros and Chicago Cubs are two teams that pulled this off. The Cubs were able to break through and win the 2016 World Series and end their 100+ year championship drought. The Astros were one of the laughing stocks of the sport for years but turned that failure into unquestioned success.

The Cubs were able to select players like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber due to their high draft selections from tanking. They went 61-101 in 2012, which represents their worst record during their rebuilding phase. They only had a few bad seasons before they were in the position to turn it around. They made a smart deal to acquire Anthony Rizzo via trade. Once their playoff window opened, they jumped into the spending spree, as well. They supplemented their young core with star players and veteran players. The strategy was implemented very well.

The Astros were in much the same boat, although their tanking was a bit more dramatic and the results were poor for a few seasons. From 2011-2013, they only won around 50 games in three consecutive seasons (56, 55, and 51). However, they were able to draft talents like Carlos Correa and George Springer. They added to their core with some impactful outside additions. Tanking doesn’t always work, but there are examples proving it can.