St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Martinez may just be destined for the bullpen

Carlos Martinez has the best value for the St. Louis Cardinals as a starter, but in 2020 it is setting up for him to relieve once again.

When he’s healthy and in the right mindset, Carlos Martinez can throw ace-like stuff for the St. Louis Cardinals. However, in recent years the time he has spent in that sweet spot has been few and far between.

We’ve gone through it before, but from 2015 to 2017, Martinez was an easy top-of-the-rotation arm that, at the ages of 23-25, looked like he had the entire world before him. Over that time, he threw 580 innings with a 3.24 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and a 3.59 FIP. He may not have reached “ace” status, but he definitely wasn’t lower than a 3rd starter. For most of that time, he was the team’s best starter.

However, due to mostly shoulder issues he has thrown just a combined 167 innings over the past two seasons. Starting 2019 on the IL, the team decided at some point that Martinez was best off not trying to stretch back out into a starter’s role.

When Jordan Hicks went down needing Tommy John surgery, Martinez was the clear pick for the closer. From there, he went on to record 24 saves over more or less the final three months of the season after Hicks went down.

Over that time, Martinez was below his career averages in hits per nine, homers per nine, and walks per nine, all while striking out 9.9 batters per nine, more than 1 batter more than his career average. He had a 3.17 ERA with a 2.86 FIP. Looking back to his best starting years, all of his 2019 per nine values were better than that stretch except his walks per nine, and those were within .2 of his previous best.

Martinez was the best version of himself coming out of the bullpen last year.

This year though, the team was attempting to get Martinez back into the starting rotation where he could provide the most value. However, after the delay in the season, it seems as though the groundwork for Martinez returning to that closer role might be getting laid already.

It’s not a good start that Martinez’s test results delayed his ability to start throwing. With just three weeks to get from whatever shape each starter was in during quarantine to as game-ready as possible, any delays for any of the planned starting pitchers could be catastrophic for their ability to be ready when games start July 24.

With workouts beginning Friday and Martinez not being able to get on the mound until Tuesday evening, the decision could’ve already been made for him.

To me, keeping Martinez in the bullpen is kind of like driving NASCAR Generation 6 car on a quarter-mile race track. It can certainly drive fast, but it’s not what it’s built for. But what happens if you realize you are really driving a Formula 1 car?

It’s not that I don’t think Martinez can be a weapon from the bullpen, he’s proved he can be. What is frustrating to me is that he seems like such a more valuable piece in the rotation instead. Martinez is now 28, and at a certain point, it’s just time to change our expectations around a player.

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If Martinez excels in a bullpen role more than he could in a starter’s role, then be happy the team is getting that production from him. Stressing over what could’ve been for too long can just be unhealthy and lead to us not appreciating Martinez for what he is best suited for.

The team could still try and move Martinez back to the rotation in 2021, but if Martinez is healthy and ends up better off in the bullpen, he’ll be well worth the money the team is paying him. After 2021, the Cardinals have two years of team options on Martinez where his salary jumps from $11.7M in 2021 to $17M then $18M.

If Martinez and Jordan Hicks form an elite back of the bullpen along with Giovanny Gallegos, then he’ll be well worth those two options. If he continues to get hurt, both years have a $500k buyout. Martinez is also going to become an interesting trade candidate over the next few seasons. If he’s in the bullpen his trade value certainly goes down, but again, at some point, you have to stop trying to fit a square peg into a circular hole.

Carlos Martinez may be a whole lot closer to Joe Kelly than Pedro Martinez, but that doesn’t mean that he is not worth keeping around. In the closer’s role in 2019, he was a stud (even with some memorable blowups). If the Cardinals are not going to have a fully healthy Jordan Hicks in 2020, Martinez works just fine going back to the closer role, something he’s comfortable with already.

The subject of who would replace Martinez’s spot in the rotation is for another article, but for now, I urge you to view Martinez for what he can provide, not for what you wished he’d become. You can never underestimate how much value a big-time reliever can provide, and there are plenty of options for Martinez’s spot in the rotation. At some point, you have to stop fighting for something that clearly isn’t going to happen.