St. Louis Cardinals: Tommy Edman could beat projected stats again

Tommy Edman was the St. Louis Cardinals’ most pleasant surprise last season, and while some stats are bearish on him, there is reason for optimism.

St. Louis Cardinals utility man Tommy Edman proved to be a threat at the plate in 2019, and he complemented his value at the plate by playing five positions. Edman could prove to be an important cog in the lineup again, and while some warning signs indicate that the batting stats are likely to go down, he could better than some expect.

Edman’s batting average was a sparkling .304 in 2019 after his debut in June, but the underlying statistics are less favorable. According to Baseball Savant, Edman was down in the 21st percentile in exit velocity and the 19th percentile in hard-hit percentage, meaning he benefited from some lucky placement on balls in play. He only amassed 18 barrels on the season as well.

In the first half of the season, Edman was hitting for a higher exit velocity, but it dwindled as the season wore on. However, it is a definite possibility that Edman was affected by the longer major league season, and he could improve the exit velocity and barrels later in the season now that he’s been exposed to the rigors of a full major league season.

The biggest outlier for Edman in his major-league time was his slugging percentage of .500. Until 2019, Edman had hit nowhere near that mark, with his previous high being .427 in Low-A ball. It is possible that Edman figured something out in Triple-A in 2019, as he slugged a career-high .513. But it’s more likely that Edman took advantage of Triple-A getting the juiced major league baseball in 2019. With the homer-happy atmosphere, Edman could hit around 15 home runs at his peak.

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Statcast put Edman’s expected batting average in 2019 at .287, which is still a respectable number, and it had his slugging percentage at .441. This seems more realistic for Edman going forward, especially as pitchers learn to spot his weaknesses and force Edman to make adjustments of his own. His plate discipline could use work as well, as he only walked 16 times in 349 plate appearances.

Projections for 2020 give Edman significantly lower numbers than what he produced last year. Rotochamp, Steamer and ATC give Edman a composite line of .273/.320/.423. Baseball Reference is much kinder, projecting a line of .289/.345/.484.

However, even if these are the numbers, Edman still seems to have a higher ceiling than other one-year wonders for the Cardinals, such as Aledmys Diaz. If Edman loses the ability to hit, he can still run; Baseball Savant put his sprint speed in the 97th percentile. And while he isn’t a spectacular defender at any position, he can handle spots in the infield and outfield reasonably well.

The sixth-round pick has already exceeded expectations, but many stats point to his hitting falling back to earth in 2020. But even if Edman falls lower than that, a utility player who can hit .250 and steal 10 bases a year is a very valuable commodity.