St. Louis Cardinals: Winter Meetings primer and predictions

As they do every year, the St. Louis Cardinals top brass will meet with other teams at the Winter Meetings. What should fans expect?

For any serious MLB fan, especially a St. Louis Cardinals fan, the annual MLB Winter Meetings is the most exciting weekend of the year. Well, that is when free agency is acting like free agency. This year, the Meetings start on December 8th (Sunday) and run until December 12th (Thursday) and all of the top talents and GM’s will be gathering in San Diego for some fun.

In 2018, the biggest fish on the market were Manny Machado and Bryce Harper (how could we forget) and the buzz heading into the Winter Meetings was huge. Sadly, the trend of front office inaction from the 2017 offseason continued and neither of the biggest free agents signed.

In fact, the biggest names who signed or were traded were Charlie Mortons two year, $30M deal with the Rays, a three-team deal involving the Indians, Mariners, and Rays where the top piece moved was Carlos Santana, then maybe Andrew McCutchen signing with the Phillies? In short, it sucked.

The Cardinals came into the Winter Meetings just days after acquiring Paul Goldschmidt and while they were reported to be in on a couple of names, they made a total of 0 moves at the Meetings. This was a disappointment, but the groundwork for the Andrew Miller signing that happened less than two weeks later was laid during this time.

This year, it seems that MLB free agency is back to where it should be and there has been more action up to this point than we’ve had in a few years. To be fair, no huge names have moved yet, but there is plenty of action to suggest that the powder keg is set for a fun Winter Meetings.

The Cardinals obviously have needs, and the Winter Meetings are going to be a good place for them to find relief. With that in mind, what types of moves could we see in the next five days?

Don’t expect much in the free agent world

This week, I wrote about how the one year, $18M deal Cole Hamels signed with the Braves and then the five year, $118M deal Zack Wheeler signed with the Phillies has changed the free agent market for starting pitchers. The basic premise was that for a Cardinals team that is already self-hamstrung for cash, the skyrocketing price of free agent starting pitchers does not bode well for the team jumping in that pool.

When you add on the fact that the team doesn’t have a gaping hole in the rotation, it doesn’t make sense for the team to give the 30-year-old Madison Bumgarner $100M over five years when it then kicks out one of the other five high-paid starters the team already has.

While that is just the starting pitching market, I wouldn’t get your hopes up for the batter market either. While even fewer batters have gone off the market than pitchers, I would expect that the top tier batters out there (Anthony Rendon) are going to be way outside anything the Cardinals wish to pay.

After that top tier of free agents, the pool (especially in the outfield where the Cardinals have an open spot) drops off significantly. If the team doesn’t want to pursue a 29-year-old Marcell Ozuna, why would they go after someone like Nicholas Castellanos?

There may be something minor that happens, like a mid-inning reliever or a non-tendered bench bat, but don’t expect anything big from free agency.

The most likely outcome is trade

This is where it’s been a fun week of dreaming. Ever since David Schoenfield predicted what a Mookie Betts to the Cardinals trade would look like, dreams of grandeur seem to have sprouted in every fans’ mind. I can’t say that I am not in this boat too as I wrote about the feasibility of that deal that Schoenfield predicted.

While I would be super surprised to see that deal happen (regardless of how tantalizing it is), there are still plenty of options that the Cardinals could explore to be creative with their self-imposed salary cap of around $160M.

It all starts with cutting salary, something most teams want to do these days. For the NL Central rival Brewers, their answer to cut salary was to just non-tender or trade more than half their roster. With literally half of their roster churned over, they now have less than $60M committed in payroll for 2020 and that affords them the flexibility to go after some big names this offseason.

The Cardinals and their current $152M payroll do not have anywhere near that luxury.

Any deal that the Cardinals make in the next five days will be about money as much as it is about making the team better. Does that sound off to you? The good thing is that there are plenty of ways where both of those facets can be satisfied and fans won’t have to riot.

John Mozeliak is just going to have to get creative. He’s done it in the past, he’ll do it again.

The St. Louis Cardinals trade for Francisco Lindor

IF THE CARDINALS ARE GOING TO MAKE A SPLASH, and I HAD to pick one name that I would put money on the St. Louis Cardinals acquiring in the next five days, the player I would pick is Francisco Lindor.

Lindor fits everything the Cardinals look for in a player and with the Indians looking to cut salary too, the Cardinals could get a player to match Paul Goldschmidt in star-power for a discount. I would have to think a trade for Lindor would include the much cheaper Paul DeJong and more going back in the other direction.

This may not be realistic, but again, if the Cardinals are going to make some sort of splash at the Winter Meetings, this is the guy I have my odds on.

Lindor is a perennial All-Star and Gold Glover, and with two years left under contract and the Indians being a frequent trade partner, the fit is just too good to ignore. Do the Cardinals need a shortstop? Nope, but they do need offense and Lindor provides a lot of it.

Another name that popped up recently is Starling Marte. The Pirates are reportedly looking for a catching prospect in return, which, of course, the Cardinals could provide in Andrew Knizner. That trade might work asset-wise, but I wouldn’t see the Pirates being too eager to trade Marte to a division rival.