St. Louis Cardinals: Who is safe from the Rule 5 draft?

The Rule 5 draft is a yearly exercise with some unique opportunities for the St. Louis Cardinals. First, they picked who to protect.

At 7:00 p.m. central time on Wednesday, the St. Louis Cardinals needed to make some big decisions on who they are going to protect with a 40-man roster spot so that they are ineligible for the Rule 5 draft. Any minor league player signed at 18 must be added to the 40-man within five seasons and any player signed at 10 has to be added within four seasons.

The biggest stipulation for drafting this player is that the player has to stay on the 25-man roster of the team who drafts that player for the full 162-game season, or else they are returned to the team that drafted them.

For the Cardinals, the most notable player who they recently took in this draft was Matt Bowman who pitched in relief for a couple of years with the team and then was released. The Cardinals have had a couple of players poached from their minor league system (RIP Allen Cordoba in 2016) but none have truly become impact players on other teams.

This year, the Cardinals had four top players eligible for the draft. Elehuris Montero, Jake Woodford, Conner Capel, and Max Schrock were all eligible.

As the 7:00 p.m. deadline passed, the Cardinals decided to protect both Montero and Woodford as well as one unlisted name, Alvaro Seijas. With only two open spots on the 40 man, the Cardinals cut Dominic Leone to free up that final spot.

For Montero, 2019 was a big step back for the former Midwest League MVP. Still just 20 years old, the third baseman hit below .200 in 63 games between rookie ball and AA Springfield. In Montero’s MVP season at low A, he hit .322 with a .910 OPS and it looked like the Cardinals had a two-headed dragon at third base coming up with him and Nolan Gorman.

Montero was injured for large stretches in 2019 though but plate discipline is the big issue for him. 2020 is going to be a big year for him as the Cardinals are risking losing other players to protect him.

Woodford was the Cardinals’ 1st-round draft pick in 2015 and pitched the whole year at AAA. The 23-year-old struggled with walks in his 150 innings in 2019 with 4.5 of them per nine innings. His 4.15 ERA isn’t great but he projects as a mid-to-bottom of the rotation pitcher who can still eat innings and provide value. I was a little surprised Woodford didn’t see any MLB action this year but I would guess he does in 2020.

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Seijas was an international signee and while he may not be high on the Cardinals’ top-30 prospects list, he has the chance to dominate down the road. Pitching at Low A and High A in 2019, the 20-year-old put up a 2.81 combined ERA over 134 innings. Seijas is definitely a guy to watch in the next two years.

Now for the players the Cardinals left unprotected, Max Schrock was the other piece returned in the Stephen Piscotty trade. Shrock is 25 and played the whole year at AAA for the second year in a row. Schrock’s strength is his hit tool but this year’s uninspiring .747 OPS didn’t entice the team to call him up. He can play any position on the left side of the infield and some outfield so I wouldn’t be surprised if a team snagged him to be a utility infielder.

Conner Capel was one of the two prospects the Cardinals got back in the Oscar Mercado trade and playing mostly at AA, he had just a .635 OPS. Capel has shown some pop in his minor league career, but he hasn’t shown enough to warrant protection from the Rule 5 Draft.

I love all three of the decisions the Cardinals made to protect in the Rule 5 draft. I would expect Schrock might get picked, but I wouldn’t bet on anything. The pressure is on now for Montero, Woodford, and Seijas as the team just gave them a big compliment by protecting them. Now it’s time to pay the team back with performance.