3 Halloween-scary trades that the St. Louis Cardinals should actually do

To get something you have to give something in return. The St. Louis Cardinals will have to dig deep into the trade bag this Halloween and beyond. Standing at the door and saying, “Boo,” will not be enough to be admitted to the perennial elite teams in baseball.

By all accounts the St. Louis Cardinals made great strides in 2019: 91 wins, the Central Division title, an appearance, albeit brief, in the National League championship series, with its fleeting chance of playing through Halloween Eve.

How to build on that success, however, seems to be quite a daunting challenge. Because just as soon as strides are made, gaping holes and question marks appear.

By all accounts, because of payroll and other obligations, the Cardinals will not be participating in the sweepstakes for the top four free agents (that being Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, and Aroldis Chapman).

This means that in order to move the needle, the Cardinals are going to have to trade. Yet the trade proposals that are bandied about seem to be mainly trading from surplus, and odds-and-ends (such as a bench-piece who can’t field, and a swing-man with some upside starter potential). Nothing you can expect your trading partner to get excited about.

When you sell low, you don’t get an impact trade. The need for immediate horse-trading by President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak arises from four main areas:

1. The investment in Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter, which demands sufficient playing time.
2. The emergence of Tommy Edman as a player who “must play.”
3. Cardinal prospects, inconveniently, not all coming along at the same time.
4. Holes in the pitching staff due to cycling out and injury.

The pervasive worry about offensive numbers, which especially revealed itself in the playoffs, is a concern. Some holes in both the starting staff and the bullpen have reinforced the old adage “you never have enough pitching.”

About Those Contracts. The Cardinals have at least two players they have invested in whom, by track record, must be given every chance to live up to their contracts. And the front office has made clear that by every chance, they mean every chance.

Outfielder Dexter Fowler, fortunately, made great strides in 2019, though fell back pathetically in the postseason run. Matt Carpenter‘s 2019?… not so much.

But going through the depressing task of trying to shop them for paltry returns, and then getting them to waive no-trade clauses here and there, is just not worth it. Especially when either is likely to pop back up for their next team and be an All-Star again.

Since the Cardinals’ roster at present still is not scaring any of our competitors, deals must be considered. And no one outside of Jack Flaherty and Yadier Molina should be off the table.

The website Baseball Trade Values has come up with a formula, and nifty trade proposal widget, that essentially says that a player’s trade value is his surplus value:

Field value – salary = surplus

This is just one website’s estimation of player value (a very difficult value to quantify), but for the purpose of this article, we are going to run with it for lack of a better way to determine trade value.

The Cardinals have acute needs for more offense, starting pitching and a closer. They are probably not going to go back to the Michael Wacha well. Hall of Fame sportswriter Rick Hummel is predicting that Adam Wainwright will not return.

Dakota Hudson, despite his win total (win totals are deceptive anyway), showed vulnerability in the late-season and postseason and will have to overcome the threat of sophomore jinx/regression as the league catches up to his stuff (and has started to catch up already).

According to team board chairman William O. Dewitt Jr., speaking on the Frank Cusamano radio show on KFNS-AM, Jordan Hicks will not be available in the first half of the season. As to the second half of the season, the best Dewitt could offer is “we will have to see”. No shoulds or hopes or “possiblys”. Tommy John surgery, though “90% successful” is subject to a wide range of outcomes regarding recovery times, Dewitt said.

The following players we will propose to make available in trades are all great players. They are not without flaws, but we are here to puff their value, not to undercut it. And we still do not know if we are losing free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna yet.

The following are three alternative ways to move the needle in the off-season. Remember: if you don’t sell high sometimes, you don’t “win” too many trades.

Trade piece: Paul Dejong

Baseball Trade Values ℠  median value: 99.3

What to seek in return: A front-line starting pitcher or everyday closer, plus home run prospect.

Paul Dejong has set all kinds of records for St. Louis Cardinals’ shortstops in his budding career with the team. Especially to Cardinals fans with long memories of light-hitting shortstops like Dal Maxvill, the rarity of a home run hitting shortstop seems like the pearl of great price that should be preserved at all costs.

Yet Dejong’s surplus value is the second-highest on the team, second only to Jack Flaherty‘s. The emergence of Tommy Edman as a potential shortstop who can also hit a few home runs himself makes trading Dejong even thinkable.

In addition, there were times this year, especially towards the end of the year that Dejong resembled Maxvill more than Babe Ruth at the plate.

The thing that would make Dejong especially hard to part with is that he has turned into a better than average defender. His defense is reflected in his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) which sits at 4.1 bWAR, second highest of the position players and third highest on the team.

Trade piece: Paul Goldschmidt

Baseball Trade Values ℠  median value: minus 52.0

What to seek in return: Package of a front-line starting pitcher, corner outfielder with high OPS+ and top-five prospect.

Remember when we rented Lance Berkman for 600 plate appearances and won the World Series in 2011? Remember when we got two seasons out of Carlos Beltran and won the NLCS? Paul Goldschmidt helped us get back into the playoffs after a three-year absence, shored up the Cardinals’ defense by pure example and by deed, and took us from most errors in MLB to fewest.

But the Paul Goldschmidt chapter can end right there, an unalloyed success, fondly remembered just like Berkman and Beltran.

Goldschmidt has an eminently fair long-term contract that takes him all the way through age 37 that will be attractive to many teams. Just like he was a game-changer for us, he can be a game-changer for another team.

Yes, his surplus value is hugely negative, and thus the market for taking on that kind of contract will not be a large market. But once we find the right suitor, the return can be a bevy.

When you dangle a Goldschmidt, you can think big. Sort of, “what will you dream today?” A number one or two starter? A surefire backup catcher who can be an heir to Yadier Molina? A corner outfielder with thump?

For the Goldschmidt package, we can expect to get a pitcher who plugs a major hole in the starting staff or bullpen.

Although he did not have a “Paul Goldschmidt” kind of year offensively, and his first career appearance in the NLCS was a personal strikeout-fest that no-doubt depressed him as well as his teammates that looked up to him for leadership, his offense will be missed. This means that an established player with home run power will be required in this trade.

Inasmuch as the stars in baseball seem to keep getting younger and younger (like 21-year old Juan Soto of the Washington Nationals, still living at home with his parents), the Cardinals will want to get a top-five prospect in this trade as well.

But wouldn’t our infield defense miss the 6′ 3″ first-baseman? We already have a 6′ 3″ first-baseman. His name is Matt Carpenter whom we signed to a three-year deal so that he could retire as a Cardinal who, as we said above, must play. First-base is the best position for Carpenter and will be the only position he can play if Donaldson is signed and Wong is retained.

With five combined years of players who may be in the midst of age-related decline on the roster, do the Cardinals want to risk another five in Goldschmidt that is showing the same possibility? Or will they trade those years away while they are still tradable (should Goldschmidt approve a trade)?

The Washington Nationals seem to be a pretty good team to emulate right about now. They did not seem to hesitate to say goodbye to Bryce Harper and his MVP offense, especially if it gave them the freedom financially to pursue other goals.

They put their faith in a 19-year old, Soto, at a time other teams were stowing their young prospects to retain more control. They did a mini-rebuild around a solid nucleus and it got them a World Series ring.

A key feature of this rebuild was pitching. See, Patrick Corbin: Elite starter. Elite reliever. Elite swing-man. World Series Game 7 winner. Maybe the Cardinals could pick up an arm of that quality in the near-future. Either by trade or new-found financial freedom.

As the old saying goes, you never have enough pitching. Just when you think you’ve got enough, it slipped through your fingers like water. Yes, the Cardinals had a great 2019 pitching-wise, but why not keep building?

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With the probable departure of Michael Wacha, the question-marks about the role of Carlos Martinez, the injuries to Jordan Hicks, the reversal of Miles Mikolas from leading the league in wins to leading the league in losses, the Cardinals cannot bank on their pitching.

Although offense, you would certainly say, is the crying need for the Cardinals right now, offense can be temporarily bolstered by plugging in a lower-ranking free-agent. Plus you’ve got to think that Dylan Carlson, Lane Thomas or one of the other many outfield prospects will emerge.

And then there’s always the nice dream that either Dexter Fowler or Matt Carpenter will return to their All-Star seasons.

If any of these trade deals are done, they will not be without pain, both production-wise and sentimentality-wise. No fan, nor front-office member, has been known to utter a bad word about Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Dejong or Kolten Wong. But as they say, “No pain, no gain”. Have a Happy Halloween as you contemplate these ghastly trades.