The St. Louis Cardinals: Yeah, they’ve got issues (a musical analysis)

For a team that made it to the NLCS, the St. Louis Cardinals have a surprising number of personnel questions to solve. Yeah, we got issues: seven of ’em.

The St. Louis Cardinals have issues too, Julia. A surprising number, given how prodigiously successful they were in 2019. At the beginning of the year, the team looked like a number of really pretty jigsaw pieces that didn’t fit together. But manager Mike Shildt somehow crammed them down to a division-winning pattern.

But now with 2020 looming, the Cardinals look like even more of a puzzle. Let us take a look at these seven issues. And taking a cue from Julia Michaels, let’s look at them musically.

1. Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Paul Goldschmidt

“How Many Friends?” – The Who

When I first signed a contract It was more than a handshake then I know it still is ~ The Who

Contracts for Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, and Paul Goldschmidt are something of an albatross for the Cardinals because of the streaky performances of these players. If trading Carpenter (who has at least two more years) or Fowler (who has two more years and a no-trade clause) is not possible (or not permitted), the Cardinals would probably like to at least find roles for them that minimize their “Streaky Behavior.”

Goldschmidt will be at first base, regardless. But if the Cardinals have any ambitions of advancing beyond the NLDS, they will have to have a Paul Goldschmidt that shows up. Or get a companion slugger who can take “The Weight” off Paul.

If the Cardinals could have managed to squeeze by the Nationals, I can’t imagine what it would have been like trying to take on the Yankees and Astros with a Goldschmidt continuing to slug .063 with a 56% strikeout rate. An in-game forfeit might have been in the offing!

What we don’t want to happen is for these contracts to become motivators for management to engage in the sunk cost fallacy by over-relying on these players, which will cause heartburn with the fans and block the development of some of the superb prospects coming up in the Cardinals system (such as we saw with Tommy Edman).

This of course will not be a near-term issue with Goldschmidt. But he will be 37 years old when his Cardinals contract expires, and if there is a true age-related decline in his hitting, it could become an issue in later years.

4. Marcell Ozuna

” Can’t Live With ‘Em Can’t Live Without ‘Em” – Tompall and the Glaser Brothers

The Cardinals will have to decide whether to make a qualifying offer to left fielder Marcell Ozuna, estimated to be around $19m for a one-year deal… or, even sign him quickly to a long-term deal, which he says he covets.

Some early-season and pennant-race/postseason fielding gaffes bracketed a couple of relatively uneventful months of outfield play. He is back, at season’s end, to wearing a neon compression sleeve.

Many think the Cardinals could do better than Marcell, especially when it comes to on-field play. Still, others are frightened about whether the team could readily replace his 29 home runs and 89 RBIs merely through internal options.

The free-agent market may make the decision for the Cardinals. Ozuna may be much more attractive to a team that uses the designated hitter.

Before they pull the trigger on a qualifying offer, the Cardinals will want to get a read from a doctor on how Ozuna’s arm is faring.

5. Carlos Martinez

“I’ve Been Thinking About You” – Londonbeat

Carlos Martinez is a superbly-talented pitcher. But where and how to use the two–time All-Star is an issue.

The “first-inning blow-up” problem that plagued his career as a starting pitcher reared its head a few too many times this year in the closer’s role, suggesting that he may not be best suited for the final-inning of games. He wants to be a starter again anyway, and that is where he will be slated to be on the depth chart when Spring Training opens on February 22, 2020.

And then there is the question of whether Carlos would prefer to go to another team which would be more open to Martinez being one of their starters. Overshadowing that question is, “How valuable a trade chip would he really be?” Issues to be decided!

6. Ryan Helsley

“Indian Reservation” – Paul Revere and the Raiders

Should the Cardinals reserve a spot in their starting rotation for the one-quarter Cherokee fireballer, Ryan Helsley, who looked so good in the postseason? This is an issue, but perhaps a good issue to have.

More from St Louis Cardinals News

• The St. Louis Cardinals are closing in on Willson Contreras
• Cardinals: Day 3 of Winter Meetings brings first move and catcher rumors
• Cardinals Rumors: Growing buzz that St. Louis will sign Willson Contreras
• Cardinals Rumors: Here is what Oakland is asking for Sean Murphy
• The St. Louis Cardinals’ 2024 rotation needs work

The rookie was a quality reliever in 2019, netting 0.6 bWAR in just 36 innings after his call-up from AAA Memphis. But it was in the NLCS that he really shined, pitching in three of the four games, and holding the dastardly Nationals at bay with no hits in four innings. This put one of the few smiles on Cardinals’ fans faces in that series.

But there was instant talk among keen observers that Helsley “just looked like” a starter. And we’ve known since Spring Training that Helsley is capable of throwing pitches over 100 mph, a shame to waste in his current middle-relief mode.

If so, when will they have to begin stretching him out as a starting pitcher? And will there be room for him in the five-man rotation when technically ahead of him on the depth chart are Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, Carlos Martinez and the injury-plagued Alex Reyes? Issues… good issues for once.

7. Dylan Carlson

“New Kid in Town” – Eagles

Outfielder Dylan Carlson is the team’s number one prospect and was knocking on the door quite loudly in 2019. But at 20 years of age, despite the success of Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. (and other juveniles) the Cardinals simply weren’t having it. Years-of-control, don’t you know. Now that Carlson can have a legal-drink (next week), perhaps Carlson can be “unlocked.”

But the Cardinals will have issues come Spring of a) whether to give Carlson a big-league shot and b) if so, how much they can rely on his success to cede Marcell Ozuna to the free-agent waters?

It is difficult to recall a Cardinals offseason with as many issues with current personnel on the table. The front office and the player-development team will likely need to start thinking about these issues right away, well in advance of the Winter Meetings.

Or they can let Spring Training performances be the deciding factor. But by late March, trade and free-agent options may be limited.

Here is your 40-man roster at the season’s end 2019. These are the jigsaw pieces that President of Baseball Operations, John Mozeliak, will be trying to make fit for 2020 or else trade for better-fitting pieces. Ready, Steady, Go!

Carlos Martinez Pitcher 27 R R
Miles Mikolas Pitcher 30 R R
Giovanny Gallegos Pitcher 27 R R
Jack Flaherty Pitcher 23 R R
Ryan Helsley Pitcher 24 R R
Daniel Ponce de Leon Pitcher 27 R R
Adam Wainwright Pitcher 37 R R
Tyler Webb Pitcher 28 L L
Genesis Cabrera Pitcher 22 L L
John Brebbia Pitcher 29 L R
Dakota Hudson Pitcher 24 R R
Andrew Miller Pitcher 34 L L
Jose Martinez Position 30 R R
Yadier Molina Position 36 R R
Yairo Munoz Position 24 R R
Marcell Ozuna Position 28 R R
Matt Wieters Position 33 S R
Randy Arozarena Position 24 R R
Kolten Wong Position 28 L R
Harrison Bader Position 25 R R
Matt Carpenter Position 33 L R
Paul DeJong Position 25 R R
Tommy Edman Position 24 S R
Dexter Fowler Position 33 S R
Paul Goldschmidt Position 31 R R
Michael Wacha Pitcher 27 R R
Austin Gomber Pitcher 25 L L
Alex Reyes Pitcher 24 R R
Dominic Leone Pitcher 27 R R
Mike Mayers Pitcher 27 R R
Junior Fernandez Pitcher 22 R R
John Gant Pitcher 26 R R
Justin Williams Position 23 L R
Joe Hudson Position 28 R R
Adolis Garcia Position 26 R R
Ramon Urias Position 25 R R
Edmundo Sosa Position 23 R R
Rangel Ravelo Position 27 R R
Tyler O’Neill Position 24 R R
Andrew Knizner Position 24 R R

If that list seems overwhelming, it’s because it is. John Mozeliak’s job is harder than the layman thinks and he is going to have some very tough decisions to make with this roster this offseason. But hey, that’s why he makes the big bucks.