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St. Louis Cardinals: With two weeks left, who’s in negative WAR?

By Emmett McAuliffe

ATLANTA, GA - MAY 16: Manager Mike Shildt of the St. Louis Cardinals looks on in the fifth inning of an MLB game against the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park on May 16, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - MAY 16: Manager Mike Shildt of the St. Louis Cardinals looks on in the fifth inning of an MLB game against the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park on May 16, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /
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St. Louis Cardinals
ST. LOUIS, MO – AUGUST 12: The sun sets over Busch Stadium during a game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Atlanta Braves on August 12, 2017 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Being negative WAR for a season is the most-deadly of calculations. It says that the team would have been better off with anybody else but you. Which 2019 St. Louis Cardinals are still in negative territory with 14 days to go?

With only 13 games left to go, players on this list who are still on the playing roster of the St. Louis Cardinals will have to hump in order to say they contributed positively to what is still more-likely-than-not a playoff-bound team in 2019. What went right – and wrong – for these players in 2019 who find themselves on the outside looking in for a playoff roster spot?

The most significant two differences of opinion between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are on Jose Martinez and Matt Wieters. Wieters is considered to be +0.5 by Baseball Reference yet -0.3 by Fangraphs. But Fangraphs also has Andrew Knizner at -0.2.

We may assume that the low ratings for those two has something to do with the strict way that Fangraphs rate catchers. Thus, we will not be covering Wieters or Knizner in the list. Most fans believe both of them have performed adequately, if not admirably at times, this season.

Nor will we cover players who were with the Cardinals for only a blink of an eye in 2019: Drew Robinson, Chasen Shreve. Adalberto Mejia and Luke Gregerson (free-agent signee to whom the Cardinals will have paid $11m).

Team Player Value–Pitchers
Name Age IP fWAR WAAadj WAR
▲
Dominic Leone 27 36.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.4
Mike Mayers 27 16.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.4
Alex Reyes (7-day IL) 24 3.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4
Genesis Cabrera* 22 15.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2
Andrew Miller* 34 46.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2
Chasen Shreve* 28 2.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Luke Gregerson 35 5.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1
Adalberto Mejia* 26 3.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Michael Wacha 26 116.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Team Player Value–Batters
Name Age PA fWAR WAA WAR
▲
Yairo Munoz 24 174 -0.3 -1.0 -0.4
Jose Martinez 30 359 +0.1 -1.5 -0.4
Jedd Gyorko 30 62 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1
Drew Robinson* 27 7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Matt Wieters 33 172 -0.3 0.0 +0.5

List of St. Louis Cardinals players’ value according to WAR and WAA (Baseball-Reference) and Fangraphs WAR (fWAR) for the 2019 season.

We decided to leave Genesis Cabrera alone, for now, since he just made his debut after Memorial Day, his rookie status is still intact, and he is only slightly in negative territory after appearing in eight games. Let’s give the guy a chance, huh?

We will also not cover Mike Mayers, whose posting of a negative WAR is not surprising because it his fourth straight year of doing so and he has been DFA’d once this year already.

And Michael Wacha? He is only in negative territory on Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Average stat, and only by -0.1. And the Michael Wacha issue has been covered adequately – and repeatedly – elsewhere.

We present to you the players whose season WARs are out-of-character … and will need improving next year .. if not this. If you are not yet familiar with the sabermetric calculation WAR, it is a is a non-standardized baseball statistic developed to sum up “a player’s total contributions to his team”. Further explanations on how the calculation is done are given here and here.

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