St. Louis Cardinals: 2019 preseason bold predictions update

Four months ago, I made five bold predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals 2019 season. How are those predictions holding up?

The St. Louis Cardinals came into the season with a ton of potential and high expectations. Those expectations were set not only by what fans saw on the roster but by where the team themselves told fans the bar was set for 2019.

After finishing the first half at a record of just 44-44, there is not really any argument about whether or not it was a disappointing first half.

Back in March, I put my neck on the line making five bold predictions about how this season would go. The stakes aren’t obviously very high as I pulled all of those predictions from the abyss of my mind and not from doing any math or using any formulas or anything like that (what fun it is to be a blogger).

So how are those predictions holding up after half a season’s worth of games? Why not take a look?

Prediction #1: Marcell Ozuna does not finish the year on the Cardinals

We are getting started with a bit of a cop-out as this prediction still could very well be true. We will know by the end of the month because if the team is not heading in a good direction out of the break and Ozuna comes back from the injured list relatively soon, the Cardinals could sell high on Ozuna as a rental to a team who needs some extra pop.

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No doubt the best hitter on the team, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to think a team would want a guy with 20 homers and an .847 OPS, especially as a rental. The big problem here is that Ozuna broke his fingers and players usually are going to take a bit to regain form after breaking bones in their fingers (see 2018 Paul DeJong and 2019 Yadier Molina).

I would have to predict that at this point, teams are going to be scared that Ozuna doesn’t come back as nearly the same power threat before the July 31st deadline and are scared away enough to not risk a flop in the second half.

Prediction #2: Tyler O’Neill leads the team in homers

Here’s where we get into the zingers of this list, as I truly believed that this one was possible back in March. At that time, Tyler O’Neill was leading the team in homers during Spring Training which was a title he held until the team headed North. The problem was O’Neill dealt with an injury in the middle of April and then was sent down to get regular at-bats which is another problem.

O’Neill has not gotten regular at-bats in the St. Louis Cardinals crowded outfielder. I imagined that the first prediction would’ve come true and that would’ve vacated left field for him to get regular at-bats. While O’Neill is finally getting regular AB’s with Ozuna’s injury, it would’ve needed to happen earlier in the season and he would’ve needed to be on more of a role to lead the team in homers.

If you are thinking at home that he could still get hot and carve out playing time, O’Neill has been pretty cold in the homer department in his limited playing time as he only has one bomb up to this point.

Prediction #3: Jack Flaherty finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting

Let the fun times roll on as we get to the disappointing first half of Jack Flaherty. So far, Flaherty has a 4.64 ERA with just 107 K’s over 97 IP. The biggest problem for Flaherty has been a common theme for a lot of pitchers on the Cardinals and other teams as he has just given up way too many homers. Through his 18 starts this year, he has tied his total from last year with 20 homers allowed in 10 fewer starts.

While Flaherty has had some gems, including his no-hit bid to finish the first half, he has only finished the seventh inning three times while not making it past the fifth five times. Flaherty has shown he’s still got his talent, he just needs to work on being more consistent.

Long term, I am not worried about Flaherty as plenty of pitchers have sophomore slumps, but it is clear that anywhere near the top five in Cy Young voting is out of the question.

Prediction #4: Adam Wainwright’s career has a rough ending

This is the only prediction that I am ecstatic to be wrong about so far. I think that so many people were wrong on this that nobody is talking about how solid Waino has been, myself included. People don’t like to acknowledge their blown predictions which is why I believe Waino’s season has been so under the radar.

Overall, his 4.31 ERA and 82 K’s in 87 innings isn’t amazing or up to the past Waino we had seen a long time ago, but with a 98 ERA+, he’s not all that bad for a 5th starter. He has just plain been average, which after his last few years (88, 83, 88 ERA+ over the last three), this has been a welcome bounce back first half for the 37-year-old.

That doesn’t mean that the second half of the season couldn’t take a downturn for Wainwright, as making it through an entire season’s worth of starts this year would be the first time he did it since 2016. I am rooting for him still though as he is a great veteran presence to have at the end of the rotation, even in his current state.

Prediction #5: Lane Thomas is this year’s breakout contributor

This one may be the biggest swing and a miss for me out of the five predictions I made. Lane Thomas was among last year’s biggest breakout prospects in the entire system as the 23-year-old prospect who was acquired from Toronto hit .263 with an .823 OPS and 27 homers between AAA and AA and with great defense in centerfield, it was looking like the Cardinals had found a hidden gem that was banging at the door of the Majors.

Not to say that Thomas isn’t still full of potential, but in 2019, that banging at the door turned into a courteous knock. At AAA this year, Thomas has all but seen his power fall off a cliff. With a .248 average and just a .381 SLUG, Thomas has hit just 11 doubles and four homers. This may be just a minor adjusting year as his OBP numbers have gotten better, which is likely a result of him getting fewer pitches to hit.

Thomas has seen some time at the Majors this year though as a result of his showing last year and has shown up pretty well. He’s come up two times and been used mostly as a pinch hitter but has a .308/.357/.538 slash with one homer.

While he hasn’t been the “breakout contributor” of the year, he is still a valuable outfield prospect who has just as much potential as he did last year, he’s just having a bit of a down year.

The Cardinals have promised fans a better second half and if they had had a better first half, some of these predictions might have come true. At the end of the day, predictions are just fun daydreams that people love to argue about. Nobody knows what’s going to happen until it does. Here’s to hoping the second half is better…