St. Louis Cardinals: A quick word on Kolten Wong staying 8th

Kolten Wong has started this season right where he left off in the second half of 2018, and this has prompted many St. Louis Cardinals fans to call for Wong to bat second. Here’s why I think it’s fine for him to stay right where he is.

Let’s go back to a time long past, St. Louis Cardinals fans. To a time where people believed that Dexter Fowler leading off would be a good thing, and that Matt Carpenter should hit third. Carpenter was significantly better as a leadoff throughout his career than at any other spot in the lineup, and it showed when the change was made.

Now, the talk of the town is moving Kolten Wong up to the second spot all the way up from hitting in the lower part of the lineup for the past two plus seasons. I think that the experience with Matt Carpenter, and the way that he declined dramatically as a hitter being moved out of his natural leadoff spot should serve as a sort of warning post for the St. Louis Cardinals.

But why does this kind of sudden difficulty happen? Well, moving someone around the lineup doesn’t just affect how many at-bats you see, who is hitting behind you as safety, and your opportunities to hit in key situations.

There are two other key factors that a move in the lineup impacts that can have significant effects on a player’s performance. The first is your role and responsibility on the team. Hitting as the guy in front of the pitcher and hitting as the guy in front of Paul Goldschmidt are two entirely different situations, and are thus approached differently, even if that difference is subconscious.

The second thing is the fact that pitchers will approach you much differently. While it’s difficult to directly extrapolate how often two hole hitters receive pitches in the zone, comparing Wong to the league average illustrates a possible point of concern.

An average team had their pitches land in the strike zone around 43.1% of the time, while Wong faced 44.6% of the pitches thrown to him in the zone in 2018, and that number jumps to 47.7% in 2017, when the average was around 45%.

While this might not seem like a dramatic change, the approach of a pitcher changes as situations change. The small percentage points of pitches in the zone may make it seem like you are seeing the same things, but even that small percentage combined with a general change in what the pitcher wants makes hitting from the two hole different from hitting eighth.

So why do I bring all of this up? Well, as the old saying goes, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Just as Matt Carpenter could never get comfortable in the three spot, because of these changes, and there is a possibility that the same thing happens with Wong upon his move up into the lineup.

Over 766 PA’s as a leadoff or a two hole hitter, Wong is slashing .243/.301/.367, and limiting it to just his 408 PA’s as a two hitter doesn’t help much, as he sits at .250/.307/.374 in the second spot over his career.

Kolten Wong has started this season right where he left off in the second half of 2018, and this has prompted many St. Louis Cardinals fans to call for Wong to bat second. Here’s why I think it’s fine for him to stay right where he is.

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